nCino (NCNO): Examining Valuation as Cloud Banking Software Faces Investor Scrutiny

nCino (NCNO) shares have seen moves lately, with investors weighing the company’s recent performance against its ongoing role in cloud banking software. This comes as market sentiment has shifted for many SaaS-based financial platforms, which has stirred up some discussions around nCino’s outlook.

See our latest analysis for nCino.

nCino’s share price has moved in fits and starts this year, with short-term rallies giving way to a longer-term slide. The stock’s 1-year total return of -30.15% reflects the challenges typical of many high-growth tech names lately. Momentum has been fading, and investor focus has shifted to whether nCino can reignite growth amid a changing market mood about cloud-based platforms.

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With shares trading well below their recent highs while long-term growth remains in question, investors are left weighing whether nCino offers real value at current levels or if the market is already accounting for future upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 24.5% Undervalued

nCino’s most widely followed valuation narrative places fair value at $35.54, notably higher than the last closing price of $26.84. The narrative spotlights powerful industry shifts and lays out growth drivers that supporters are betting will reshape nCino’s long-term business trajectory.

A large-scale shift by banks and credit unions from legacy, fragmented IT infrastructure to cloud-native, end-to-end SaaS core banking platforms is leading to ongoing net new customer growth and major expansions, evidenced by wins with top U.S. and European banks. This supports sustained revenue and ACV growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s behind this bullish call? The narrative is staked on game-changing business transformations and future profit assumptions. See what numbers and forecasts are moving the needle. Don’t miss how these projections could rewrite expectations for nCino’s valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $35.54 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, intensifying competition from both tech giants and fintechs, as well as slower international expansion, could stall nCino’s growth and challenge bullish expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this nCino narrative.

Build Your Own nCino Narrative

Keep in mind, you’re not limited to the consensus view. Explore the numbers and shape your own perspective on nCino in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your nCino research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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