Assessing MicroStrategy (MSTR) Valuation As Bitcoin-Linked Treasury Story Faces Sharp Share Price Swings

Intro

Strategy (MSTR) continues to attract attention as a bitcoin treasury company and AI-powered analytics provider. It offers securities tied to Bitcoin alongside enterprise software, which gives investors a mixed exposure story to consider.

See our latest analysis for Strategy.

At a share price of US$131.05, Strategy’s recent 1 day share price return of 1.24% sits alongside a 30 day share price decline of 19.66% and a 1 year total shareholder return loss of 56.27%. The 3 year total shareholder return is a little over 4x and the 5 year total shareholder return is 74.64%, highlighting strong long term swings in sentiment around its Bitcoin exposure and software business.

If this mix of Bitcoin and AI analytics has your attention, it could be worth broadening your watchlist with our screener of 17 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks as potential ideas to research next.

With the shares well below analyst targets and an intrinsic value model implying a large discount, the market has clearly cooled on Strategy. Is this a mispriced blend of Bitcoin and AI, or is future growth already fully priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 80.2% Undervalued

At $131.05, the most followed narrative on Strategy pegs fair value far higher at $663, creating a sizeable gap between price and story.

MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, continues to execute its radical evolution from enterprise software firm to Bitcoin-native financial platform. In Q2 2025, the company reported an eye-catching $14.5 billion in unrealised profit under the newly adopted fair value accounting standard. This was the first full quarter in which Bitcoin appreciation flowed through to the income statement, giving the company GAAP net profitability for the trailing 12 months.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what justifies a fair value five times above today’s price? The thesis leans on aggressive treasury expansion, richer margins and a premium multiple linked to Bitcoin leverage. The full narrative sets out the scaffolding behind that $663 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $663.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on Bitcoin staying supportive and investor appetite for high leverage remaining strong, while heavy dilution or tighter regulation could quickly change the situation.

Find out about the key risks to this Strategy narrative.

Next Steps

If this mix of strong opinions and mixed signals leaves you unsure, it is worth checking the underlying data yourself and moving quickly to shape your own view. You can start with 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop with just one stock, you might miss out on opportunities that better fit your goals, risk comfort and time horizon, so consider widening the net.

• Spot potential bargains early by reviewing our list of 54 high quality undervalued stocks that could merit a closer look if you are hunting for mispriced quality.
• Prioritise resilience by checking out companies in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (43 results) that may appeal if you care about financial strength and staying power.
• Hunt for fresh ideas by scanning the screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems that might not be on most investors' radars yet.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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