Assessing MongoDB (MDB) Valuation As AI Commentary And Upcoming Earnings Draw Investor Focus

Interest in MongoDB (MDB) has picked up after fresh analyst commentary framed it as a key database player for GenAI and Agentic AI applications ahead of its upcoming fourth quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report.

See our latest analysis for MongoDB.

That upbeat GenAI narrative is colliding with a sharp reset in expectations, with the share price at US$305.37 after a 23.6% year to date share price decline, but a 14.3% 1 year total shareholder return that points to longer term confidence holding up better than recent momentum.

If AI infrastructure is on your radar after looking at MongoDB, it could be worth scanning a wider set of potential beneficiaries through our screener of 34 AI infrastructure stocks.

With the share price under pressure year to date but analysts still publishing higher targets and AI expectations riding high, is MongoDB now trading at a discount, or is the market already pricing in years of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 30.6% Undervalued

Against MongoDB’s last close at $305.37, the most followed narrative implies a fair value of about $440, using an 8.91% discount rate and long term cash flow assumptions.

Ongoing product innovation, including integrated capabilities like search, vector search, and embeddings, increases platform stickiness and wallet share. This enables deeper penetration of current accounts and higher net revenue retention, which can contribute to both top line and operating margin improvement over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that $440 fair value mark? Revenue growth, margin lift and a rich future earnings multiple all play a part. Curious which assumptions really move the needle in this narrative?

Result: Fair Value of $440.10 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still real swing factors here, including tougher competition from cloud provider databases and open source options, as well as ongoing dilution from rising share count.

Find out about the key risks to this MongoDB narrative.

Another Angle On Valuation

The narrative based fair value points to upside, but the P/S ratio tells a different story. At 10.7x sales, MongoDB trades above its own fair ratio of 9.6x, the US IT industry average of 2.1x, and the peer average of 7.9x, which raises clear valuation risk questions.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern feels familiar, it is a good moment to look through the numbers yourself and decide where you stand. You can start with 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop with just one stock, you risk missing better fits for your goals, so widen your search and let the data do the heavy lifting.

• Start building a watchlist of potential turnaround stories by checking out 31 elite penny stocks with strong financials that pair low share prices with stronger balance sheets and fundamentals than you might expect.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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