Earnings Miss: IREN Limited Missed EPS By 26% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for IREN Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$7.75 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.11, some 26% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$148m. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering IREN are now predicting revenues of US$843.5m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a huge 123% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. IREN is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.09 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$866.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.07 in 2026. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

Check out our latest analysis for IREN

The average price target was steady at US$18.52even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic IREN analyst has a price target of US$23.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$12.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await IREN shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that IREN's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 90% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 65% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect IREN to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded IREN's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$18.52, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for IREN going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for IREN (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.