Should Wall Street’s AI Optimism Around Datadog’s Observability Platform Require Action From Datadog (DDOG) Investors?

  • In recent weeks, multiple research firms including Stifel, TD Cowen, Guggenheim, Bernstein, and Scotiabank have reiterated positive views on Datadog, highlighting expectations for robust quarterly results and strong demand for its observability platform.
  • Analysts are also emphasizing Datadog’s growing AI observability capabilities and expanding customer adoption as key reasons for their constructive outlook on the company’s business momentum.
  • Next, we’ll examine how this optimism around Datadog’s AI observability growth shapes the company’s investment narrative for investors.

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What Is Datadog's Investment Narrative?

To own Datadog, you need to believe its observability and security platform, including newer AI monitoring tools like LLM Observability and OpenAI Monitoring, can keep deepening its role as core cloud infrastructure for customers, even as growth moderates and the stock trades on a rich sales multiple. Recent analyst moves reinforce that story but with a more cautious tone: ratings largely remain positive, yet several firms have trimmed price targets and flagged valuation and OpenAI workload concentration as near term pressure points. At the same time, the stock’s pullback, ongoing AI customer adoption, and the upcoming February 10 earnings update keep execution on AI observability and large customer retention as the key catalysts to watch, while increased insider selling and any shift in AI demand or competitive intensity stand out as the most immediate risks.

However, recent insider selling trends are something investors should be paying close attention to. Despite retreating, Datadog's shares might still be trading 41% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.

Exploring Other Perspectives

DDOG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
DDOG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Nine fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$116 to US$260, showing wide disagreement on Datadog’s upside. Set that against rich sales multiples and concentration concerns around OpenAI workloads, and you can see why different investors may weigh the AI observability opportunity and competitive risks very differently.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Datadog - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Datadog Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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About NasdaqGS:DDOG

Datadog

Operates an observability and security platform for cloud applications in the United States and internationally.

Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.

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MPAA often has inventory and core-related timing issues. While this quarter’s problems may ease, similar issues have recurred historically and can persist for several quarters. It's not a one-off, it's a structural part of their business. Core returns are simply estimates: How many customers will actually return the original part; how quickly they'll do so; how many are useable; what they're worth, etc. MPAA predicts X sales in a quarter and Y core returns and its reserves, inventory values, etc. are based on that. If they expect a 90% core return rate and only 80% come back it doesn't change cash but they have to write down inventory and increase cost of goods sold which impacts EPS. They've also cited inventory buildup at key customers multiple times in the past. The assumption the latest backlog will all shift into future quarters this year with no impact on pricing, etc. seems more like wishful thinking. Retailer X was slated to buy $10m in parts this quarter but finds they have a lot more inventory on hand than they anticipated so they pushed the order. Realistically there are likely to be SKU cuts, reduction in safety stock on others, etc. Assuming that all $10m will come in this year plus the regular replenishment seems pretty unrealistic. MPAA also has a shaky track record when it comes to new lines and the supposed impact on business. If you look at the EV testing solutions hype back around 2020 that was supposed to diversify them beyond traditional reman and be a higher margin business that would grow with EV adoption. But it has never turned into a material contributor. The debt reduction and stock buy backs are meaningful but IMHO this narrative takes a very optimistic view of things.

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