A Look At Commvault Systems (CVLT) Valuation After New STACKIT Partnership And CrowdStrike Integration

Commvault Systems (CVLT) is back in focus after unveiling a STACKIT partnership for EU sovereign cloud data protection and deepening its CrowdStrike integration. This has prompted fresh questions about how these developments could relate to the current share price.

See our latest analysis for Commvault Systems.

The STACKIT and CrowdStrike announcements arrive after a mixed period for the stock, with a 1-day share price return of 2.33% to US$88.58 but a 90-day share price return decline of 28.28%. The 3-year total shareholder return of 50.26% contrasts with a 1-year total shareholder return decline of 47.47%, suggesting longer term holders have seen gains even as recent momentum has faded and the market reassesses growth and risk around Commvault’s cyber resilience offerings.

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With Commvault’s shares well below their recent 1 year and year to date total returns, yet trading at only a small premium to one intrinsic value estimate and a large discount to analyst targets, is there a genuine opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in the company’s future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 36.9% Undervalued

Commvault’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of $140.33 per share, well above the last close of $88.58. This naturally raises questions about what kind of growth and profitability profile that view is built on.

Rapid expansion and successful cross-sell/upsell momentum within the SaaS (Metallic) platform, evidenced by 63% SaaS ARR growth, a 45% increase in multi-product customers, and 125% SaaS net dollar retention, point to continued improvement in the quality and predictability of future revenues, directly supporting margin expansion and higher earnings visibility.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this narrative treats recurring SaaS revenue, margin expansion, and future earnings visibility as the key pillars? The full story connects those building blocks to a higher long term earnings base, a richer profit profile, and a valuation multiple that only makes sense when you see how all three interact.

Result: Fair Value of $140.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upside case still leans on assumptions that could be tested by slower new customer wins or pressure on margins if the subscription mix and acquisitions weigh on profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this Commvault Systems narrative.

Another Angle: What Earnings Multiples Are Saying

The first narrative leans on a fair value of $140.33, but current pricing tells a different story. At a P/E of 44.8x, Commvault sits well above the US Software industry at 25.8x, the peer average at 25.2x, and even the 34x fair ratio it could move toward. That gap points to valuation risk rather than a clear discount. How much confidence do you really have in the growth story baked into today’s price?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With the market sending mixed signals on Commvault, it makes sense to move quickly, look through the underlying data yourself, and weigh both sides of the story. A helpful way to frame that view is to line up the company’s 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs and decide which matters more for you right now.

Ready for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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