Cipher Mining (CIFR) Is Down 11.1% After $7.5 Billion AI Pivot With AWS And Google-Backed Fluidstack

• Cipher Mining has already begun shifting from pure Bitcoin mining toward AI-focused data centers, securing long-term leases with Amazon Web Services worth about US$5.50 billion and expanding a Google-backed Fluidstack hosting agreement that could reach roughly US$2.00 billion.
• This pivot effectively recasts Cipher as a hyperscaler-backed AI infrastructure landlord, but it also layers on heavy upfront construction spending, ongoing Bitcoin exposure, and potential dilution from warrant redemptions.
• We’ll now examine how the long-term Amazon Web Services lease reshapes Cipher Mining’s investment narrative and its evolving risk-reward profile.

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Cipher Mining Investment Narrative Recap

To own Cipher Mining today you need to believe it can convert its crypto-centric roots into a durable AI infrastructure business, with hyperscaler contracts offsetting Bitcoin-linked volatility. The AWS and Fluidstack leases strengthen that long-term story, but in the near term the key catalyst remains on-time, on-budget buildout of new data centers, while the biggest risk is that heavy capital spending and ongoing Bitcoin exposure keep earnings and the share price volatile.

The 15-year, US$5.50 billion AWS lease is the clearest proof point behind Cipher’s pivot, effectively pre-booking 300 MW of AI capacity from 2026. That agreement makes construction timing, financing costs and warrant-related dilution far more important near term, because any slippage or cost overruns could reduce the benefit of those contracted cash flows just as investors are reassessing former miners as AI landlords.

Yet investors should be aware that heavy use of convertibles, warrant redemptions and rising capex could still...

Read the full narrative on Cipher Mining (it's free!)

Cipher Mining's narrative projects $696.2 million revenue and $91.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 63.6% yearly revenue growth and a $245.1 million earnings increase from -$154.0 million today.

Uncover how Cipher Mining's forecasts yield a $27.25 fair value, a 80% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span US$6 to US$27.25, highlighting how far apart views on Cipher’s upside really are. You can set those differing opinions against the company’s heavy capital spending needs and Bitcoin exposure, which keep both future profitability and valuation sensitivity firmly in focus for anyone considering this stock.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Cipher Mining - why the stock might be worth as much as 80% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Cipher Mining Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Cipher Mining research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Cipher Mining research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Cipher Mining's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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