AppLovin (APP): Examining Valuation After a 40% Monthly Surge and Near-100% YTD Return

AppLovin (APP) has been getting attention from investors following a nearly 40% rise in its stock price over the past month. With year-to-date returns approaching 100%, many are curious about what is driving this impressive momentum.

See our latest analysis for AppLovin.

AppLovin’s momentum has been hard to ignore, with its recent 30-day share price return of nearly 40% capping off an impressive period that has seen year-to-date gains approach 100%. Looking at the bigger picture, shareholders have also enjoyed a 3.9% total return over the last year and a remarkable 34.5% over the past three years. This suggests the rally is built on more than just short-lived excitement, as investors are clearly growing more confident about the company’s growth prospects and business execution.

If AppLovin's surge has you wondering what other fast movers might be out there, now’s the perfect moment to see which companies are making waves with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

But with the stock now sharply higher and trading above analyst targets, the key question emerges: Is AppLovin undervalued given its growth, or is the market already pricing in all its future success?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.3% Overvalued

AppLovin's most widely followed valuation narrative assigns a fair value that is noticeably below its recent closing price, set against a backdrop of rising market optimism. This gap draws focus to the high assumptions embedded in the current share price, putting the spotlight on what needs to go right for today’s valuation to hold up.

Expanded rollout of the self-service AXON ads manager and Shopify integration is expected to open AppLovin's platform to a massive new base of small and mid-sized advertisers globally, dramatically increasing advertiser count and driving sustained uplift in topline revenue.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the growth blueprint behind this high valuation? The key narrative leans on explosive revenue and margin expansion across new verticals. Think big bets on tech adoption and margin improvement. Ready to see the bold projections that justify this price?

Result: Fair Value of $613.59 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, tightening data privacy regulations or rising competition from tech giants could quickly challenge AppLovin’s strong growth story and impact profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this AppLovin narrative.

Build Your Own AppLovin Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive deeper into AppLovin’s numbers, you can shape your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your AppLovin research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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