American Bitcoin (ABTC) Is Down 42.4% After Lock-Up Expiration Volatility Hit Trump-Linked Miner – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In early December 2025, American Bitcoin Corp., a Trump-linked Bitcoin miner, faced intense volatility after a lock-up expiration allowed early pre-merger investors to sell previously restricted shares, triggering heavy trading, multiple halts, and profit-taking amid a weak backdrop for crypto-related equities.
• Despite the turbulence and heightened scrutiny over its China-made mining rigs, company leaders emphasized their long-term commitment, continued Bitcoin accumulation, and a recent swing from a large prior-year loss to a net profit with substantially higher revenues.
• With the recent share price rebound over one day but decline over seven days, we’ll examine how the lock-up expiration and early investor selling shape American Bitcoin’s investment narrative.

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What Is American Bitcoin's Investment Narrative?

To own American Bitcoin after this kind of swing, you have to believe in two things at once: that its Bitcoin mining and accumulation model can turn recent revenue growth and Q3 profitability into something durable, and that you can live with extreme stock price volatility along the way. The early-December lock-up expiry put that volatility front and center, as pre-merger investors finally took profits and exposed how fragile sentiment around Trump-linked, crypto-exposed names can be. In the near term, the key catalysts still look tied to Bitcoin prices, mining efficiency and access to capital, but the episode adds a new layer: future equity unlocks and large overhangs may become events in their own right. It also sharpens existing risks around governance, dilution, and ongoing scrutiny of its China-made rigs.

But the bigger concern is what future share unlocks might mean for existing holders. Despite retreating, American Bitcoin's shares might still be trading 20% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Only one fair value estimate from the Simply Wall St Community sits around US$3.02 per share, while recent lock-up driven volatility and equity overhang questions in turn keep many investors focused on how fragile sentiment could affect execution.

Explore another fair value estimate on American Bitcoin - why the stock might be worth just $3.02!

Build Your Own American Bitcoin Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your American Bitcoin research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free American Bitcoin research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate American Bitcoin's overall financial health at a glance.

Interested In Other Possibilities?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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