Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Could Be Fully Valued On Its India Quantum Contract

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is back in focus after securing a contract to deliver a 108-qubit quantum computer to India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing. The deal highlights growing commercial interest in its hardware.

See our latest analysis for Rigetti Computing.

Over the past year Rigetti Computing has delivered a 1 year total shareholder return of 26.65%. Recent momentum has cooled, with the 30 day share price return down 23.21% and the year to date share price return down 31.74% as sector wide risk appetite has shifted and macro driven selling has weighed on quantum stocks despite contract wins and ongoing interest in its hardware.

If this quantum contract has you looking beyond a single stock, it could be a good moment to scan a wider set of quantum computing opportunities through the 26 quantum computing stocks

After a sharp pullback yet a sizable gain over the past year, Rigetti Computing now sits at an interesting crossroads. Does the current valuation still compensate you for the contract risk and ongoing losses, or has the balance shifted?

Most Popular Narrative: 70% Overvalued

According to the most followed narrative, Rigetti Computing's fair value of $16 sits below the last close at $16.11, which puts more attention on the story behind that premium.

Bull case: Rigetti is more credible today than it was before the Q1 2026 update. Revenue improved meaningfully, the balance sheet remains strong, Cepheus-1-108Q is now commercially available, and the company continues to hit relevant hardware milestones. If technical progress and customer traction continue together, the stock can keep working.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why a small revenue base still supports such a rich valuation? The narrative leans heavily on rapid revenue expansion, improving losses, and a premium multiple usually reserved for early leaders in new computing categories.

Result: Fair Value of $16 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Rigetti Computing's heavy losses and reliance on milestone-driven contracts mean that any slip in execution or order timing could quickly challenge this premium narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Rigetti Computing narrative.

Next Steps

Does the split between rich valuation hopes and real contract risks leave you conflicted on Rigetti Computing? Consider your options while sentiment is still shifting and walk through the same data investors are weighing by reviewing the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more Rigetti Computing sized ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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