Does Qualcomm Still Offer Upside After Recent Share Price Gains?

• Wondering if QUALCOMM is still a smart buy at around $174 a share, or if most of the upside has already been captured? Let us walk through what the current price really implies about its future.
• The stock has climbed 5.6% over the last week, is up 0.9% over the past month, and has gained 13.5% year to date, adding to a solid 53.3% return over 3 years and 24.7% over 5 years.
• Those moves have come as QUALCOMM stays in the spotlight for its position in 5G and advanced mobile chipsets, alongside growing attention on its role in AI capable devices and automotive connectivity. Investors are increasingly treating it as a key infrastructure player for the next wave of connected hardware, which has shifted how the market prices its growth runway and risk profile.
• Right now, QUALCOMM scores a 3/6 valuation check score, suggesting pockets of undervaluation but not extreme value across every metric. In the sections that follow, we break down what different valuation methods indicate about that price, then finish with a more holistic way to think about what QUALCOMM might really be worth.

Find out why QUALCOMM's 11.1% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: QUALCOMM Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future, then discounting those cash flows back to today in $ terms. For QUALCOMM, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, starting from last twelve months free cash flow of about $12.6 billion and extending through a decade of projections.

Analyst estimates drive the nearer term outlook, while Simply Wall St extrapolates growth further out. Under this framework, QUALCOMM’s free cash flow is projected to reach around $18.4 billion by 2030, with additional, gradually slowing growth assumed into the mid 2030s. When all those expected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $206.06 per share.

Compared with the current share price around $174, the DCF suggests QUALCOMM trades at a 15.4% discount to its estimated fair value. This indicates that the market may not be fully pricing in its long term cash generation potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests QUALCOMM is undervalued by 15.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 909 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for QUALCOMM.

Approach 2: QUALCOMM Price vs Earnings

For profitable, relatively mature businesses like QUALCOMM, the Price to Earnings, or PE, ratio is a practical way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of current earnings. It naturally reflects both what the market expects for future growth and how much risk investors see in those earnings.

In general, faster growing and less risky companies tend to trade on a higher “normal” PE, while slower, more volatile names trade on lower multiples. QUALCOMM currently trades on a PE of about 33.6x, a discount to its Semiconductor industry average of roughly 37.6x and well below the peer group average near 75.5x. This indicates the market is not assigning it a premium multiple despite its position in 5G and AI enabled devices.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio framework estimates what PE a stock might trade at after accounting for factors like its earnings growth outlook, profitability, industry dynamics, size and risk profile. This is more tailored than just comparing with peers, which may have very different growth runways or risk levels. For QUALCOMM, the Fair Ratio is around 33.4x, extremely close to its actual 33.6x, suggesting the current price is broadly in line with fundamentals.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1442 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your QUALCOMM Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, an easy way to tie your view of QUALCOMM’s future to a concrete estimate of fair value.

A Narrative is simply your story for the company, expressed through assumptions about its future revenue, earnings and margins, which then flow into a forecast and a fair value estimate that sits behind the headline numbers.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives make this process accessible by guiding you to link QUALCOMM’s business drivers, like edge AI or automotive design wins, to specific financial outcomes, so you can see how your expectations compare with the current price.

Because Narratives are dynamically updated as new information arrives, from earnings beats to regulatory headlines, they help you continually reassess whether QUALCOMM’s fair value sits above the market price, or below it, so you can consider whether that aligns with your own approach.

For example, one QUALCOMM Narrative on Simply Wall St currently implies a fair value near $300 per share based on strong AI led growth, while a more cautious Narrative sees value closer to $192 per share, reflecting moderate growth and higher perceived risks.

Do you think there's more to the story for QUALCOMM? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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