Will China’s Semiconductor Investigations Shift ON Semiconductor's (ON) Cross-Border Growth Narrative?

• China recently launched two investigations targeting the U.S. semiconductor sector, including an anti-dumping probe into certain analog IC imports, just ahead of high-level trade talks in Spain between U.S. and Chinese officials.
• This move underscores growing geopolitical risks facing U.S. chipmakers with international exposure, especially as regulatory scrutiny intensifies around cross-border technology trade.
• We'll examine how China's new semiconductor investigations introduce fresh uncertainties for ON Semiconductor's current investment outlook.

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ON Semiconductor Investment Narrative Recap

To be an ON Semiconductor shareholder today, you need to believe in the company’s ability to leverage its strengths in automotive and industrial power solutions, especially as electric vehicle and AI data center markets continue to grow. While China's recent anti-dumping investigation into US analog ICs highlights rising geopolitical risks, this is not expected to materially impact the company’s most immediate catalyst, customer adoption in next-generation automotive platforms, nor its core risk around margin pressure due to manufacturing underutilization and cyclical demand swings.

Among the company’s recent announcements, ON Semiconductor’s EliteSiC M3e technology integration into Xiaomi’s 800V electric SUV platform is most pertinent. This underscores the company’s push into advanced EV power solutions, a focus that remains central to the growth catalysts driving potential revenue recovery even amidst escalating trade tensions that could influence supply chains or overseas demand.

However, investors should know that despite strong progress in core segments, intensifying geopolitical and supply chain risk could rapidly affect...

Read the full narrative on ON Semiconductor (it's free!)

ON Semiconductor's narrative projects $7.5 billion revenue and $1.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.4% yearly revenue growth and a $1.43 billion earnings increase from $465.8 million.

Uncover how ON Semiconductor's forecasts yield a $57.53 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fourteen perspectives from the Simply Wall St Community place ON Semiconductor’s fair value between US$49.59 and US$70. Persistent geopolitical risk highlighted by the latest news may lead to even more varied expectations around future revenue and global market access.

Explore 14 other fair value estimates on ON Semiconductor - why the stock might be worth just $49.59!

Build Your Own ON Semiconductor Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your ON Semiconductor research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free ON Semiconductor research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate ON Semiconductor's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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