Did Enphase’s (ENPH) Expanded Safe Harbor Deal Rewire Its U.S. Solar Incentive Strategy?

• Enphase Energy has recently expanded a safe harbor agreement with a leading solar financing company, a move expected to generate about US$55.0 million in revenue across late 2025 and early 2026 while supporting tax credit eligibility and deployments of its U.S.-manufactured IQ8 microinverters.
• By tying third-party ownership financing more tightly to domestically produced hardware, Enphase is positioning its ecosystem to benefit from U.S. clean energy incentives and policy-driven demand for compliant solar-plus-storage solutions.
• We’ll now examine how this expanded safe harbor agreement, and its focus on U.S.-made IQ8 microinverters, could shape Enphase’s investment narrative.

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Enphase Energy Investment Narrative Recap

To own Enphase, I think you need to believe in long term growth in integrated solar, storage, and EV charging despite a tougher U.S. residential backdrop and policy shifts. The expanded safe harbor agreement helps near term by supporting U.S. manufacturing and tax credit alignment, but it does not fundamentally change the biggest risk right now, which is a potential 2026 demand contraction in U.S. residential solar as the 25D credit expires.

The most relevant linked announcement is Enphase’s first shipments of the IQ EV Charger 2 in the U.S., which broadens its ecosystem into home and small business charging. Together with the safe harbor deal around U.S.-made IQ8 microinverters, this extension into EV infrastructure connects directly to the key catalyst of electrification-driven demand for integrated solar plus storage plus EV charging solutions.

Yet investors should be aware that this expanding product lineup also raises execution risk if new launches underperform expectations...

Read the full narrative on Enphase Energy (it's free!)

Enphase Energy's narrative projects $1.6 billion revenue and $232.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.0% yearly revenue growth and about a $57 million earnings increase from $174.7 million today.

Uncover how Enphase Energy's forecasts yield a $38.11 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Sixteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Enphase’s fair value anywhere between US$28.32 and US$70.42, highlighting very different expectations. Against that spread, the risk of a sharp U.S. residential solar pullback after the 25D expiry could weigh heavily on how those views play out, so it is worth comparing several of these perspectives before deciding how this stock fits your portfolio.

Explore 16 other fair value estimates on Enphase Energy - why the stock might be worth 10% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Enphase Energy Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Enphase Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Enphase Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Enphase Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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