AXT, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AXTI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.4b

AXT Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

AXT is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 87.9% and 44.3% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 141.4% per annum.

Key information

87.9%

Earnings growth rate

141.40%

EPS growth rate

Semiconductor earnings growth25.9%
Revenue growth rate44.3%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated01 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 04

AXT Inc. Hits New All-Time Highs On Strong Earnings And Forward Outlook

Summary AXT, Inc. delivered strong Q1-2026 results driven by high demand for Indium Phosphide. AXT plans to expand its Indium Phosphide capacity over the next two years. The AXT stock price has gained 7,000% over the last year and is now extremely overvalued. I continue my rating of a hold for AXT stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 29

AXTI: Future InP Substrate Demand Will Outweigh Near Term Export Constraints

Narrative Update on AXT The analyst price target for AXT has moved from $45 to $90, with analysts pointing to higher assumed profit margins, an increased future P/E multiple, and stronger long term InP substrate demand expectations supported by recent capacity and capex plans at major optical and cloud players. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on AXT highlights a mix of optimism on long term InP substrate demand and some short term caution around export related constraints.
Narrative Update • Apr 14

AXTI: Export Permit Limits Will Continue To Restrain InP AI Upside

Analysts have raised AXT's fair value estimate from $28.25 to $30.75, reflecting updated views on higher potential P/E multiples, supported by expected InP growth and recent price target increases from several research firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research gives you a mixed but useful read on how the Street is thinking about AXT, with some focusing on long term InP growth potential and others highlighting nearer term execution risks and regulatory overhangs.
Narrative Update • Mar 31

AXTI: Export Permit Constraints Will Limit Upside Despite InP Demand Story

AXT's analyst fair value estimate has been raised from $26.00 to $45.00 as analysts factor in expectations for higher revenue, stronger profit margins, and a richer forward P/E multiple supported by rising Street price targets related to InP demand and export permit clarity. Analyst Commentary Recent research on AXT points to a split view, with some caution around near term export permit issues, but also a series of more optimistic calls that connect the story to longer term compound semiconductor demand and valuation support tied to InP exposure.
Narrative Update • Mar 17

AXTI: Export Permit Constraints Will Limit Benefit Of InP Demand Optimism

The analyst price target for AXT has increased from $8.50 to $21, with analysts citing stronger InP growth expectations, higher projected profit margins, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple as key supports for the updated valuation framework. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on AXT reflects a wide spread in price targets, with some analysts using relatively high P/E multiples based on long term InP growth expectations and others taking a more cautious stance as they weigh near term execution risks and policy related constraints.
Narrative Update • Mar 03

AXTI: InP Export Permit Constraints Will Undermine AI Demand Upside Potential

Narrative Update on AXT The analyst price targets for AXT have moved sharply higher, with recent updates ranging from $21 to $35. Analysts are factoring in higher fair value estimates and stronger InP growth expectations, despite ongoing export permit uncertainty.
Narrative Update • Feb 17

AXTI: Neutral Stance Will Reflect Export Permit Risks And Equity Raise

Narrative Update on AXT Price Target Analysts have raised their AXT price target from $9 to $18, citing updated assumptions for higher revenue growth and profit margins, as well as a lower discount rate. At the same time, they have shifted to a Neutral stance following export permit related headwinds in InP substrate shipments.
Narrative Update • Feb 03

AXTI: Export Permit Constraints And Equity Offering Will Pressure Future Returns

Analysts have raised their price target on AXT to US$18 from US$9, citing valuation after the company adjusted its Q4 revenue outlook due to fewer export permits for InP substrates from the Chinese government. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are framing the new US$18 price target as less about improving fundamentals and more about the stock having already run ahead of what they see as reasonable expectations.
Narrative Update • Jan 20

AXTI: Export Permit Uncertainty Will Constrain Near Term Revenue Outlook

Analysts have lifted their price targets for AXT, with moves such as from US$4.10 to US$7 and from US$9 to US$18, citing changing views on export permit progress, revenue assumptions, and valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on AXT reflects a mixed backdrop, with some bearish analysts turning more cautious even as price targets move higher.
Narrative Update • Jan 05

AXTI: Export Permits Will Drive Fragile Near Term Revenue Expectations

Analysts lifted their price target on AXT to $7.00 from $4.10, pointing to updated Q3 revenue assumptions after the company received export permits from China's Ministry of Commerce to resume shipping indium phosphide substrates to additional customers. Analyst Commentary Analysts point to the new export permits as a key reason for revisiting their models, with Q3 revenue assumptions adjusted to reflect the potential contribution from indium phosphide substrate shipments to additional customers.
Analysis Article • Dec 19

AXT, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AXTI) 39% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

AXT, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AXTI ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 39% gain in the last month alone. The last...
Narrative Update • Dec 14

AXTI: New Export Permits Will Intensify Regulatory And Execution Downside Risks

Analysts have raised their price target on AXT by approximately $2.90 per share to around $7.00, citing improved revenue expectations after the company received new export permits that enable it to resume shipping indium phosphide substrates to additional customers. Analyst Commentary Analysts are updating their models ahead of upcoming quarterly results, reflecting the impact of newly granted export permits on AXT's near term revenue and margin profile.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

AXTI: Export Permit Reliance Will Heighten Downside Risks Amid Ongoing Uncertainty

Analysts have increased their price target for AXT to $7 from $4.10, citing higher anticipated revenues because the company recently obtained export permits that allow it to ship indium phosphide substrates to additional customers. Analyst Commentary Recent updates from the analyst community reflect a reassessment of AXT's growth prospects and financial outlook following the news about new export permits for indium phosphide substrates.
Narrative Update • Nov 16

AXTI: Renewed Export Permits Will Influence Recovery Amid Regulatory Risks

Analysts have raised AXT's fair value estimate significantly from $5.70 to $9.50 per share, citing improved revenue assumptions following renewed export permits and a higher price target in recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Analyst reactions to AXT's recent developments have brought both optimism and caution regarding the company's future prospects and valuation.
Narrative Update • Nov 02

AXTI: Export Permit Uncertainty Will Challenge Margin Strength Moving Forward

The analyst price target for AXT has increased significantly from $3.82 to $5.70 per share, as analysts cite improved revenue growth expectations and recent export permit approvals as key drivers behind their revised outlook. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment regarding AXT has evolved in response to recent company developments, with notable optimism about future growth prospects.
Analysis Article • Oct 14

AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXTI) Shares Fly 26% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth

AXT, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AXTI ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Looking...
Analysis Article • Oct 08

Here's Why AXT (NASDAQ:AXTI) Can Afford Some Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Jul 20

AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXTI) Stock Catapults 33% Though Its Price And Business Still Lag The Industry

Despite an already strong run, AXT, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AXTI ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 33% in the last...
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New Narrative • May 02

Chinese Data Center Demand And Laser Tech Will Open New Markets

Strategic positioning in the Chinese data center market and local sourcing aims to reduce foreign dependency and boost revenue growth.
Seeking Alpha • Feb 24

AXT, Inc. Reported Improved Q4 Financial Performance But Q1 Outlook Disappoints

Summary AXT, Inc. reported increased revenues QoQ and YoY due to higher demand for its indium phosphide wafers. The company expects lower Q1 2025 revenues due to new regulations in China over exports of indium phosphide. The company’s stock price hit its 52-week low last Friday due to the weak Q1 outlook. The company still foresees strong performance during 2025 and 2026 regardless of the setback. I rate AXTI stock as a Hold for now and recommend that investors watch the company for developments. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 26

AXT, Inc.: Not Getting The Recognition It Deserves

Summary AXT, Inc. came close to multi-year lows last September after a selloff following guidance, but history suggests that might have been a good entry point. Guidance suggests AXTI will grow slower, at least in the short term, but there is nonetheless much more to remain upbeat about. There have been setbacks, including in terms of AI, but AXTI is still growing and on pace to get back to earning a profit as soon as next year. It may take some time and patience, but long AXTI still looks like it has what it takes to become a winning play. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 05

AXT, Inc.: Downgrading On Limited Visibility And Early Cracks In The AI Story

Summary Semiconductor substrate provider AXT, Inc. reported better-than-expected Q2/2024 results, with both revenues and profitability coming in ahead of consensus estimates. Strong sequential growth in gallium arsenide and germanium substrate sales were partially offset by a decrease in indium phosphide revenues. However, Q3 guidance came in below consensus expectations due to an anticipated sequential decline in substrate revenues. While the company looks cheap following Friday's selloff, limited visibility and a rather lumpy AI revenue ramp are likely to keep the stock in the penalty box for at least the next couple of months. Given these issues, I am downgrading the company's stock from "Buy" to "Hold". Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 21

AXT Inc.: Playing An Expected Rebound

Summary The stock has sold off in the last three days due to AXTI’s ties to China, but this could be an opportunity to take advantage of. AXTI is valued at much less than book value, which could become untenable if AXTI gets out of the red in 2025. AXTI is scheduled to release the Q2 report on August 1 and the conditions are there for a repeat of what happened twice before in 2024. The China factor will not go away anytime soon, but long AXTI has enough in its favor to make it worth backing. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 07

AXT: Strong Outlook As Business Recovery Is Picking Up Steam - Buy

Summary Semiconductor substrate provider AXT, Inc. reported Q1/2024 results in line with its April 8 preannouncement and provided Q2 guidance well ahead of expectations. The company's substrate business continues to recover across all major product lines, with some AI-related demand contributing to a 50% sequential increase in indium phosphide sales. Management expects the company to reach breakeven levels by the end of this year or early next year. The company is considering monetizing some of its holdings in a number of Chinese raw materials providers. Risk/reward is looking increasingly favorable for speculative investors, with the business recovering across the board and a number of potential near- and medium-term catalysts. Reiterating "Buy" rating with a near-term price target of $5.30. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 05

AXT: Selloff Provides Buying Opportunity

Summary A plethora of allegations raised in a new shortseller report caused AXT, Inc.'s shares to crater by 35%. The core short thesis is centering around the risks resulting from a potential failure to list Chinese subsidiary Tongmei on the Shanghai Star Market. However, these risks have been adequately disclosed by the company in recent years and should be well-known among market participants following AXT more closely. In addition, the company's business is showing early signs of life after a couple of abysmal quarters with analysts projecting a full-blown recovery for next year. In my opinion, Thursday's selloff provides speculative investors an opportunity to initiate positions in a recovering business driven by exposure to the red hot data center and AI market. Should AXT execute at least in line with current analyst expectations, the stock might approach $6 next year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:AXTI - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028382150223N/A2
12/31/202721950-58N/A5
12/31/202614315-42N/A5
3/31/202696-14N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202588-21-19-13N/A
9/30/202590-23-19-16N/A
6/30/202586-24-14-12N/A
3/31/202596-19-9-7N/A
12/31/202499-12-18-12N/A
9/30/202495-10-17-12N/A
6/30/202488-13-16-7N/A
3/31/202479-17-15-4N/A
12/31/202376-18-73N/A
9/30/202382-13-83N/A
6/30/2023100-2-26-12N/A
3/31/20231219-27-1N/A
12/31/202214116-37-9N/A
9/30/202215217-41-2N/A
6/30/202215115-2513N/A
3/31/202214614-34-4N/A
12/31/202113714-33-3N/A
9/30/202112713-38-11N/A
6/30/202111811-33-7N/A
3/31/20211067-204N/A
12/31/2020953-146N/A
9/30/202087-1-812N/A
6/30/202081-3-119N/A
3/31/202084-2-129N/A
12/31/201983-3N/A13N/A
9/30/201987-2N/A11N/A
6/30/2019963N/A10N/A
3/31/2019985N/A-1N/A
12/31/20181029N/A3N/A
9/30/201810614N/A0N/A
6/30/201810614N/A5N/A
3/31/201810212N/A9N/A
12/31/20179910N/A9N/A
9/30/2017939N/A15N/A
6/30/2017867N/A13N/A
3/31/2017836N/A14N/A
12/31/2016815N/A13N/A
9/30/2016792N/A5N/A
6/30/2016760N/A5N/A
3/31/201676-1N/A2N/A
12/31/201578-2N/A2N/A
9/30/201579-1N/A4N/A
6/30/201584-1N/A1N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AXTI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: AXTI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: AXTI is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AXTI's revenue (44.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AXTI's revenue (44.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if AXTI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/11 09:19
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/11 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

AXT, Inc. is covered by 7 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ku KangB. Riley Securities, Inc.
Hamed KhorsandBWS Financial Inc.
Richard ShannonCraig-Hallum Capital Group LLC