Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Analysts have increased their price target for AXT to $7 from $4.10, citing higher anticipated revenues because the company recently obtained export permits that allow it to ship indium phosphide substrates to additional customers.
Analyst Commentary
Recent updates from the analyst community reflect a reassessment of AXT's growth prospects and financial outlook following the news about new export permits for indium phosphide substrates. Analysts are weighing both the positive catalysts and ongoing concerns in their recommendations and forecasts for the company.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts cite increased export capabilities as a catalyst for higher revenue growth in the near to medium term.
- The upward revision of revenue assumptions signals improved execution, which could contribute to greater investor confidence and a higher valuation multiple.
- Receiving critical export permits is viewed as a positive sign for regulatory risk management and increases AXT's addressable market.
- Expectations for upcoming quarterly results have become more optimistic, partly due to the company's strengthened operational outlook.
Bearish Takeaways
- Some analysts remain cautious about the company's ability to sustain growth given the dependency on regulatory approvals.
- There are concerns that future export permit delays or restrictions could hamper AXT's execution and financial performance.
- Risks related to global trade tensions and their impact on supply chains may continue to influence the company's valuation.
What's in the News
- AXT, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting revenue between $27 million and $30 million. (Key Developments)
- The company anticipates a GAAP net loss in the range of $0.03 to $0.05 for the same period. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Remains unchanged at $9.50, indicating no adjustment in intrinsic value estimation.
- Discount Rate: Fell slightly from 11.12% to 11.01%. This suggests marginally lower perceived risk in the company’s future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth: Remains unchanged at approximately 26.18%, reflecting a steady outlook for the company’s top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Remains virtually flat at around 10.85%. This indicates stable profitability expectations.
- Future P/E: Rose moderately from 29.1x to 30.4x. This signals higher expected valuation based on future earnings.
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