ASML (NasdaqGS:ASML) Valuation in Focus as Shares Extend Upward Momentum

ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) shares have continued their upward trend in recent weeks, reflecting renewed investor interest in semiconductor technology. The company’s stock has delivered strong gains over the past month and is drawing attention across the market.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

ASML Holding’s latest share price climb builds on its consistent upward momentum this year, following a series of upbeat signals in the semiconductor space. The 1-year total shareholder return of 25% shows that long-term investors have continued to benefit from this tech giant’s resilience. Short-term gains suggest that optimism has returned for the sector. Despite daily volatility, momentum appears likely to continue as investor sentiment around chip demand and industry leadership remains strong.

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With ASML Holding’s shares reaching new highs, investors are left to wonder whether there is still hidden value left to unlock or if all the future growth is already captured in today’s price.

Most Popular Narrative: 2.8% Overvalued

According to Investingwilly, the narrative assigns ASML a fair value just below its recent close, hinting that shares may be trading a touch above justified levels. The focus turns to the key financial drivers that support this view.

ASML repurchased €1.4 billion worth of shares during the quarter and declared an interim dividend of €1.60 per share, reaffirming its commitment to shareholder returns. Secular Growth Tailwinds: AI chip demand, advanced node development, and the global push for semiconductor independence all support ASML’s long-term relevance. Even with near-term uncertainty, the structural growth story remains intact.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how an ambitious buyback, expanding service revenue, and a fast-changing chip industry fit together in one valuation? The assumptions behind this fair value stitch together recurring profits, shareholder rewards, and bets on breakthrough technology. Find out which projections move the needle on ASML’s price target.

Result: Fair Value of $1002.53 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and volatility from global trade tensions could quickly challenge even the most optimistic case for ASML’s long-term growth.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Another View: What Do Market Comparisons Reveal?

While the narrative hints that ASML shares may be overvalued, a look at its price-to-earnings ratio suggests a more balanced picture. ASML trades at 36.1 times earnings, which is slightly below both the US Semiconductor industry average of 37.7x and its peer group average of 36.7x.

This small gap could mean less valuation risk than the overvalued label might suggest. Investors are not paying a premium relative to industry norms. With the fair ratio estimated at 35x, how much room is truly left for the stock to run before the market pulls back?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own ASML Holding Narrative

If you have a different take or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own version of ASML’s story in just a few minutes with our Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ASML Holding.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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