Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for OTCPK:CNVA.F using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
OTCPK:CNVA.F DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Cnova's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Cnova's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Cnova's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Cnova has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Online Retail industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Cnova's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Cnova's earnings growth to the United States of America market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Cnova's revenue growth to the United States of America market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Cnova is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Cnova is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
While we do not consider unaudited financials to be a reliable enough to include in our analysis, you can access them on the OTC Markets Website. If you are looking for more of a qualitative research into the company, you can access Cnova's filings and announcements here.
Cnova's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Emmanuel Grenier has been the Chief Executive Officer of Cnova N.V. since January 21, 2016 and served as its Co-Chief Executive Officer from June 4, 2014 to January 2016. Mr. Grenier served as the Managing Director of Cdiscount at Casino, Guichard-Perrachon Société Anonyme. Mr. Grenier serves as an Executive Director of Cnova N.V. since January 21, 2016.
Emmanuel's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Emmanuel's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Cnova management team is about average.
CEO & Executive Director
Group Chief Financial Officer
In Charge of Investor Relations
Chief Compliance Officer
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Cnova board of directors is about average.
Cnova N.V. operates as an e-commerce company in France and internationally. The company offers home appliances, consumer electronics, computers, home furnishings, and leisure and personal goods through its cdiscount.com Website, as well as through 49 Cdiscount showrooms. It also operates Cdiscount Voyages, a travel platform for flights, holiday rentals, and equipment; Cdiscount Billetterie, a ticketing platform; 1001Pneus, a tire e-retailer; and Stootie, a peer-to-peer platform for personal services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Cnova N.V. is a subsidiary of Casino, Guichard-Perrachon S.A.
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