Vipshop Holdings Limited Just Beat EPS By 18%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.0% to US$18.64 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CN¥21b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Vipshop Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥2.42 per share, a notable 18% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Vipshop Holdings' 22 analysts is for revenues of CN¥109.9b in 2026. This reflects a credible 3.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 5.1% to CN¥15.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥109.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥15.08 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Vipshop Holdings

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$19.79, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Vipshop Holdings analyst has a price target of US$24.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.51. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Vipshop Holdings is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 2.4% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.006% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% per year. So although Vipshop Holdings' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Vipshop Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Vipshop Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Vipshop Holdings Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.