US$23.22: That's What Analysts Think Savers Value Village, Inc. (NYSE:SVV) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

It's been a mediocre week for Savers Value Village, Inc. (NYSE:SVV) shareholders, with the stock dropping 18% to US$13.66 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Results were overall in line with expectations, with the company breaking even at the statutory earnings per share (EPS) level on US$354m in revenue. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Savers Value Village

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Savers Value Village are now predicting revenues of US$1.58b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 50% to US$0.58. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.54 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Savers Value Village's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target fell 5.9% to US$23.22, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Savers Value Village analyst has a price target of US$28.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$19.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Savers Value Village's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.3% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.7% per annum over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Savers Value Village is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Savers Value Village following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Savers Value Village going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Savers Value Village has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.