MINISO (NYSE:MNSO): Assessing Valuation Following Strong Sales Growth and Upbeat Earnings Guidance

MINISO Group Holding (NYSE:MNSO) drew attention after releasing its third-quarter results, which highlight impressive year-over-year sales growth even as net income dipped. The company also issued upbeat earnings guidance for the coming fiscal periods.

See our latest analysis for MINISO Group Holding.

Following upbeat guidance, MINISO’s recent share price movement has been volatile, with a sharp decline in the past month and quarter. However, long-term total shareholder returns remain solid, up 9% over one year and nearly 79% over three years. This mixed pattern reflects shifting risk perceptions as the market digests rapid sales growth alongside short-term profit pressures.

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So with analysts projecting robust growth and shares trading nearly 40% below their average target, is MINISO now an overlooked value play, or has the market already factored in its impressive growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 26.7% Undervalued

At $19.56 per share, MINISO trades well below the most popular narrative fair value of $26.69, indicating that the market may not be fully appreciating all the company’s expansion levers. This narrative takes into account aggressive international rollouts and major shifts in store strategy set for the years ahead.

“The primary catalyst is the aggressive and ongoing expansion of its store network, both in China and, more significantly, in overseas markets. In the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, MINISO opened 125 new stores, with 88 of those in overseas markets. Management has a clear goal of maintaining a net increase of 900 to 1,100 stores globally for the calendar year 2024, indicating a strong and sustained expansion pipeline. This physical expansion is the most direct driver of top-line revenue growth.”

Read the complete narrative.

Why does this narrative see so much more value in MINISO? The answer lies in bold growth projections, a massive international footprint, and ambitious margin assumptions. What’s the revenue engine hiding behind these models? Tap in to see the real fuel powering this impressive fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $26.69 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, costly missteps in MINISO’s rapid global expansion or underperforming “super stores” could prompt the market to reassess this optimistic outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this MINISO Group Holding narrative.

Build Your Own MINISO Group Holding Narrative

If you think there is more to the story or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build your own perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your MINISO Group Holding research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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