MINISO Group Holding Limited

NYSE:MNSO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.2b

MINISO Group Holding Valuation

Is MNSO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MNSO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MNSO ($23.34) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($77.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MNSO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MNSO?

Key metric: As MNSO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MNSO. This is calculated by dividing MNSO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MNSO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.5x
EarningsCN¥2.69b
Market CapCN¥52.51b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MNSO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MNSO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.2x
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
34.8x10.5%US$7.2b
ETSY Etsy
24.9x11.6%US$6.4b
DDS Dillard's
11x-31.4%US$6.9b
VIPS Vipshop Holdings
6.2x-4.1%US$7.0b
MNSO MINISO Group Holding
19.5x20.9%US$7.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MNSO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the peer average (19.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MNSO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MNSO 19.5xIndustry Avg. 22.1xNo. of Companies3PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MNSO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (22.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MNSO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MNSO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.5x
Fair PE Ratio23.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MNSO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MNSO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$23.34
US$24.59
+5.3%
20.5%US$30.57US$14.50n/a14
Dec ’25US$20.01
US$23.08
+15.3%
22.6%US$28.80US$12.91n/a14
Nov ’25US$19.65
US$22.69
+15.5%
26.2%US$29.31US$12.49n/a14
Oct ’25US$18.86
US$21.84
+15.8%
28.0%US$29.66US$12.64n/a13
Sep ’25US$16.43
US$27.51
+67.4%
11.9%US$31.88US$21.09n/a13
Aug ’25US$15.83
US$29.37
+85.6%
6.9%US$31.99US$25.71n/a14
Jul ’25US$18.97
US$30.58
+61.2%
4.2%US$33.08US$28.48n/a14
Jun ’25US$22.49
US$30.58
+36.0%
4.2%US$33.10US$28.50n/a14
May ’25US$22.20
US$29.03
+30.8%
7.7%US$33.22US$25.32n/a13
Apr ’25US$21.16
US$28.28
+33.6%
8.0%US$31.69US$24.90n/a12
Mar ’25US$18.94
US$28.08
+48.3%
10.1%US$31.84US$22.17n/a10
Feb ’25US$16.88
US$30.38
+80.0%
5.8%US$33.66US$26.96n/a10
Jan ’25US$20.40
US$30.92
+51.6%
6.3%US$33.51US$27.01n/a8
Dec ’24US$24.24
US$30.99
+27.8%
6.3%US$33.58US$27.07US$20.018
Nov ’24US$25.48
US$29.07
+14.1%
7.5%US$32.30US$24.18US$19.658
Oct ’24US$25.90
US$27.69
+6.9%
8.6%US$32.41US$24.26US$18.868
Sep ’24US$26.07
US$26.49
+1.6%
9.2%US$29.43US$21.11US$16.439
Aug ’24US$20.97
US$24.60
+17.3%
8.0%US$27.13US$21.52US$15.839
Jul ’24US$16.99
US$23.11
+36.0%
6.7%US$26.32US$21.00US$18.979
Jun ’24US$15.94
US$23.11
+45.0%
6.7%US$26.32US$21.00US$22.499
May ’24US$17.77
US$22.15
+24.7%
4.8%US$23.73US$20.23US$22.209
Apr ’24US$17.74
US$21.79
+22.8%
4.8%US$23.79US$20.28US$21.168
Mar ’24US$18.13
US$20.27
+11.8%
12.8%US$23.02US$14.82US$18.948
Feb ’24US$15.25
US$14.60
-4.3%
16.6%US$18.00US$10.26US$16.888
Jan ’24US$10.73
US$12.40
+15.6%
10.9%US$14.25US$9.85US$20.408
Dec ’23US$11.16
US$12.37
+10.8%
11.0%US$14.20US$9.82US$24.248

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 05:56
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

MINISO Group Holding Limited is covered by 27 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Lucy YuBofA Global Research
Wenhui SongChina International Capital Corporation Limited
Xiaofang XuCitic Securities Co., Ltd.