MINISO Group Holding Limited

NYSE:MNSO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.5b

MINISO Group Holding Valuation

Is MNSO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MNSO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MNSO ($24.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($77.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MNSO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MNSO?

Key metric: As MNSO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MNSO. This is calculated by dividing MNSO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MNSO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.1x
EarningsCN¥2.69b
Market CapCN¥54.20b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MNSO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MNSO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.2x
ETSY Etsy
25.1x11.6%US$6.4b
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
30.6x8.6%US$6.2b
DDS Dillard's
11.2x-31.4%US$7.1b
VIPS Vipshop Holdings
5.9x-4.2%US$6.7b
MNSO MINISO Group Holding
20.1x20.9%US$7.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MNSO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x) compared to the peer average (18.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MNSO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MNSO 20.1xIndustry Avg. 22.5xNo. of Companies3PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MNSO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (22.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MNSO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MNSO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.1x
Fair PE Ratio23.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MNSO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MNSO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$24.18
US$24.48
+1.2%
20.0%US$30.11US$14.53n/a14
Dec ’25US$20.01
US$23.08
+15.3%
22.6%US$28.80US$12.91n/a14
Nov ’25US$19.65
US$22.69
+15.5%
26.2%US$29.31US$12.49n/a14
Oct ’25US$18.86
US$21.84
+15.8%
28.0%US$29.66US$12.64n/a13
Sep ’25US$16.43
US$27.51
+67.4%
11.9%US$31.88US$21.09n/a13
Aug ’25US$15.83
US$29.37
+85.6%
6.9%US$31.99US$25.71n/a14
Jul ’25US$18.97
US$30.58
+61.2%
4.2%US$33.08US$28.48n/a14
Jun ’25US$22.49
US$30.58
+36.0%
4.2%US$33.10US$28.50n/a14
May ’25US$22.20
US$29.03
+30.8%
7.7%US$33.22US$25.32n/a13
Apr ’25US$21.16
US$28.28
+33.6%
8.0%US$31.69US$24.90n/a12
Mar ’25US$18.94
US$28.08
+48.3%
10.1%US$31.84US$22.17n/a10
Feb ’25US$16.88
US$30.38
+80.0%
5.8%US$33.66US$26.96n/a10
Jan ’25US$20.40
US$30.92
+51.6%
6.3%US$33.51US$27.01n/a8
Dec ’24US$24.24
US$30.99
+27.8%
6.3%US$33.58US$27.07US$20.018
Nov ’24US$25.48
US$29.07
+14.1%
7.5%US$32.30US$24.18US$19.658
Oct ’24US$25.90
US$27.69
+6.9%
8.6%US$32.41US$24.26US$18.868
Sep ’24US$26.07
US$26.49
+1.6%
9.2%US$29.43US$21.11US$16.439
Aug ’24US$20.97
US$24.60
+17.3%
8.0%US$27.13US$21.52US$15.839
Jul ’24US$16.99
US$23.11
+36.0%
6.7%US$26.32US$21.00US$18.979
Jun ’24US$15.94
US$23.11
+45.0%
6.7%US$26.32US$21.00US$22.499
May ’24US$17.77
US$22.15
+24.7%
4.8%US$23.73US$20.23US$22.209
Apr ’24US$17.74
US$21.79
+22.8%
4.8%US$23.79US$20.28US$21.168
Mar ’24US$18.13
US$20.27
+11.8%
12.8%US$23.02US$14.82US$18.948
Feb ’24US$15.25
US$14.60
-4.3%
16.6%US$18.00US$10.26US$16.888
Jan ’24US$10.73
US$12.40
+15.6%
10.9%US$14.25US$9.85US$20.408
Dec ’23US$11.16
US$12.37
+10.8%
11.0%US$14.20US$9.82US$24.248

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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