Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGM:OLLI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.4b

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Valuation

Is OLLI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OLLI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OLLI ($71.52) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($62.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OLLI is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OLLI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

OLLI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA17.2x
PEG Ratio-3.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OLLI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OLLI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.7x
M Macy's
50.6x25.6%US$5.3b
JWN Nordstrom
23.2x26.6%US$3.1b
DDS Dillard's
9x-31.1%US$6.7b
KSS Kohl's
8x8.5%US$2.5b
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
24.2x-6.6%US$4.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OLLI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x) compared to the peer average (22.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OLLI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OLLI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (20.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OLLI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OLLI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.2x
Fair PE Ratio10.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OLLI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OLLI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$71.52
US$86.42
+20.8%
10.9%US$104.00US$64.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$74.23
US$85.58
+15.3%
11.1%US$104.00US$64.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$78.96
US$87.13
+10.4%
10.0%US$99.00US$64.00n/a15
Feb ’25US$74.40
US$87.00
+16.9%
10.0%US$99.00US$64.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$75.89
US$86.87
+14.5%
10.4%US$99.00US$64.00n/a15
Dec ’24US$74.77
US$84.13
+12.5%
12.1%US$96.00US$52.00n/a15
Nov ’24US$78.03
US$83.93
+7.6%
11.9%US$93.00US$52.00n/a15
Oct ’24US$77.18
US$83.33
+8.0%
12.2%US$93.00US$52.00n/a15
Sep ’24US$73.96
US$82.13
+11.1%
14.6%US$93.00US$51.00n/a15
Aug ’24US$71.98
US$68.53
-4.8%
11.3%US$80.00US$51.00n/a15
Jul ’24US$57.93
US$67.80
+17.0%
11.8%US$80.00US$51.00n/a15
Jun ’24US$53.35
US$65.47
+22.7%
12.9%US$79.00US$49.00n/a15
May ’24US$65.43
US$64.80
-1.0%
12.6%US$79.00US$49.00n/a15
Apr ’24US$57.94
US$64.00
+10.5%
13.1%US$79.00US$49.00US$74.2315
Mar ’24US$55.75
US$58.40
+4.8%
16.3%US$79.00US$42.00US$78.9615
Feb ’24US$56.45
US$57.13
+1.2%
18.2%US$79.00US$42.00US$74.4015
Jan ’24US$46.84
US$57.13
+22.0%
18.2%US$79.00US$42.00US$75.8915
Dec ’23US$60.45
US$62.13
+2.8%
14.9%US$79.00US$50.00US$74.7715
Nov ’23US$56.09
US$62.13
+10.8%
14.9%US$79.00US$50.00US$78.0315
Oct ’23US$51.60
US$62.29
+20.7%
15.3%US$79.00US$50.00US$77.1814
Sep ’23US$54.82
US$61.71
+12.6%
18.9%US$79.00US$40.00US$73.9614
Aug ’23US$61.28
US$61.64
+0.6%
21.4%US$79.00US$40.00US$71.9814
Jul ’23US$61.33
US$61.00
-0.5%
20.5%US$78.00US$40.00US$57.9314
Jun ’23US$45.75
US$54.53
+19.2%
25.4%US$75.00US$38.00US$53.3515
May ’23US$48.05
US$52.73
+9.7%
24.1%US$75.00US$39.00US$65.4315
Apr ’23US$42.85
US$51.67
+20.6%
24.9%US$75.00US$39.00US$57.9415

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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