Earnings Working Against Guess?, Inc.'s (NYSE:GES) Share Price

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may consider Guess?, Inc. (NYSE:GES) as a highly attractive investment with its 5.5x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Guess? has been doing quite well of late. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Guess?

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Guess?.

Is There Any Growth For Guess??

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Guess?'s to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 76% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 198% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 9.0% each year as estimated by the five analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we are not surprised that Guess? is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Guess?'s analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Guess? you should be aware of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com