The Boxed, Inc. (NYSE:BOXD) Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Sales Forecasts

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Boxed, Inc. (NYSE:BOXD), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

After the downgrade, the consensus from Boxed's four analysts is for revenues of US$171m in 2022, which would reflect a noticeable 7.3% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Per-share losses are expected to creep up to US$1.66. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$226m and US$1.63 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

See our latest analysis for Boxed

The consensus price target fell 58% to US$4.33, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Boxed analyst has a price target of US$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Boxed's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 14% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10% over the last year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Boxed's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Boxed. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Boxed's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of Boxed's future valuation. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Boxed after today.

So things certainly aren't looking great, and you should also know that we've spotted some potential warning signs with Boxed, including a short cash runway. Learn more, and discover the 1 other flag we've identified, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.