AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Shareholders might have noticed that AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to US$3,009 in the past week. AutoZone reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$18b and statutory earnings per share of US$150, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for AutoZone

After the latest results, the 24 analysts covering AutoZone are now predicting revenues of US$18.9b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$156, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$18.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$157 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$3,288. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic AutoZone analyst has a price target of US$3,634 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2,600. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AutoZone's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.6% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that AutoZone is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AutoZone going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for AutoZone (2 are a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.