Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

NYSE:AAP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.9b

Advance Auto Parts Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Advance Auto Parts's revenue is forecast to decline at 0.7% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 76.9% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 74.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.3% in 3 years.

Key information

76.9%

Earnings growth rate

74.8%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth9.5%
Revenue growth rate-0.7%
Future return on equity10.3%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated06 May 2025

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Advance Auto Parts: Solid Turnaround Progress, But Near-Term Weakness Cannot Be Ignored

Apr 16

What Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) Share Price Doing?

Apr 08
What Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) Share Price Doing?

Advance Auto Parts: Growth Strategy May Prove Too Aggressive

Mar 28

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.25

Mar 24
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.25

Advance Auto Parts: Ready For A Major Turnaround

Mar 11

More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) Shares After Tumbling 27%

Mar 04
More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) Shares After Tumbling 27%

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.25

Mar 01
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.25

Be Wary Of Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) And Its Returns On Capital

Feb 17
Be Wary Of Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) And Its Returns On Capital

Is Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Using Too Much Debt?

Feb 04
Is Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Using Too Much Debt?
author-image

Investments In Supply Chain And Merchandising Will Strengthen Future Performance

Jan 24 Advance Auto Parts aims to boost long-term net margins through merchandising, supply chain, and operational efficiency enhancements, targeting improved earnings.

Advance Auto Parts: Near-Term Headwinds Overshadow Promising Recovery Plans

Jan 17

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)

Jan 08
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)?

Dec 26
Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)?

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 25% Share Price Bounce

Dec 10
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 25% Share Price Bounce

Advance Auto Parts: Undervalued Turnaround Stock With Major Margin Expansion Ahead

Nov 17

Here's Why Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load

Nov 06
Here's Why Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load

Advance Auto Parts: Recovery Appears Elusive

Oct 05

Advance Auto Parts: A Decent Sale Cannot Outweigh Competitive Concerns

Sep 23

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.25

Sep 23
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.25

Returns On Capital At Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Paint A Concerning Picture

Sep 20
Returns On Capital At Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Paint A Concerning Picture

Advance Auto Parts: Valuation To Trade At A Discount To Peers

Sep 04

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) 27% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Aug 30
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) 27% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.25

Aug 25
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.25

Advance Auto Parts: Q2 Earnings Disappoint, Turnaround Isn't Gaining Traction

Aug 22

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)

Aug 11
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)

Advance Auto Parts: Value Over Everything

Aug 02

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

Jul 15
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

Here's Why Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load

Jul 01
Here's Why Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.25

Jun 18
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.25

Is It Time To Consider Buying Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)?

Jun 15
Is It Time To Consider Buying Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)?

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.25

Jun 01
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.25

Advance Auto Parts: A Messy Q1 Adds To Credibility Challenges

May 31

Third Point - Advance Auto Parts: Worldpac Sale A Near-Term Catalyst To Unlock Significant Value

May 02

Advance Auto Parts: Can The New Management Deliver?

Apr 13

Advance Auto Parts' Q4 Earnings: A First Step To Get Back On Track

Feb 29

Advanced Auto Parts: Broken Down But Repairs Being Made

Dec 17

Advance Auto Parts: The New Normal

Nov 27

At US$55.94, Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) Worth Looking At Closely?

Nov 14
At US$55.94, Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) Worth Looking At Closely?

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky

Nov 01
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky

Advance Auto Parts: Cheap For A Reason And An Uncertain Future

Oct 31

Advance Auto Parts: Another Retailer Stuck Between 'A Rock And A Hard Place'

Oct 17

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:AAP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20278,7572773029511
12/31/20268,57116114146423
12/31/20258,49929-528125
12/28/20249,094-587-9685N/A
10/5/202411,19147219416N/A
7/13/202411,261-2352542N/A
4/20/202411,27621471673N/A
12/30/20239,209-3062287N/A
10/7/20239,6688316282N/A
7/15/202310,092273-99261N/A
4/22/202311,1983738409N/A
12/31/20229,149361336737N/A
10/8/202211,078468238670N/A
7/16/202211,058522273645N/A
4/23/202211,042570394727N/A
1/1/202210,9985978171,107N/A
10/9/202110,9666468191,085N/A
7/17/202110,8876241,0411,298N/A
4/24/202110,7396351,0331,289N/A
1/2/202110,106493702970N/A
10/3/20209,854477472968N/A
7/11/20209,624453322823N/A
4/18/20209,455388180673N/A
12/28/20199,709487395867N/A
10/5/20199,701444580838N/A
7/13/20199,664437616859N/A
4/20/20199,659430641862N/A
12/29/20189,581424617811N/A
10/6/20189,512555N/A881N/A
7/14/20189,420535N/A777N/A
4/21/20189,357504N/A720N/A
12/30/20179,374476N/A601N/A
10/7/20179,420353N/A497N/A
7/15/20179,486371N/A582N/A
4/22/20179,479409N/A470N/A
12/31/20169,568460N/A523N/A
10/8/20169,518452N/A597N/A
7/16/20169,565458N/A567N/A
4/23/20169,679483N/A676N/A
1/2/20169,737473N/A703N/A
10/10/20159,941501N/A689N/A
7/18/20159,935503N/A719N/A
4/25/20159,913493N/A730N/A
1/3/20159,844492N/A709N/A
10/4/20149,015457N/A687N/A
7/12/20148,246439N/A556N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AAP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.8%).

Earnings vs Market: AAP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: AAP is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AAP's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AAP's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AAP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/07 04:57
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/07 00:00
Earnings2024/12/28
Annual Earnings2024/12/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is covered by 53 analysts. 25 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Bret JordanAvondale Partners
Craig KennisonBaird