Optimistic Investors Push Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) Shares Up 25% But Growth Is Lacking

Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 25% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 26% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Zumiez's P/S ratio of 0.3x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Specialty Retail industry in the United States is also close to 0.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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Check out our latest analysis for Zumiez

How Zumiez Has Been Performing

Zumiez could be doing better as it's been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S ratio from falling. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Zumiez.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Zumiez's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 3.0% last year. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 20% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 0.8% during the coming year according to the three analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 5.6% growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Zumiez's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

Zumiez appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

When you consider that Zumiez's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Zumiez, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.