Stitch Fix, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SFIX) 37% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Stitch Fix, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFIX) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 37% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 68%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Stitch Fix's P/S ratio of 0.4x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Specialty Retail industry in the United States is about the same. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

View our latest analysis for Stitch Fix

How Stitch Fix Has Been Performing

Stitch Fix could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Stitch Fix will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Stitch Fix's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 12%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 42% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 4.5% during the coming year according to the six analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 5.3%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Stitch Fix's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Stitch Fix's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our check of Stitch Fix's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue isn't bringing down its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see a gloomy outlook like this, our immediate thoughts are that the share price is at risk of declining, negatively impacting P/S. If the declining revenues were to materialize in the form of a declining share price, shareholders will be feeling the pinch.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Stitch Fix has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.