Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week, you might have seen that Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to US$33.90 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$307m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$0.70 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Shoe Carnival

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Shoe Carnival's two analysts is for revenues of US$1.29b in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 6.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 12% to US$3.07. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.33b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.18 in 2026. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$49.00 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Shoe Carnival'shistorical trends, as the 4.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 4.6% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.7% annually. It's clear that while Shoe Carnival's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shoe Carnival. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Shoe Carnival going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.