US$119 - That's What Analysts Think Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) Is Worth After These Results

It's been a pretty great week for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$114 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$517m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.58. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' 15 analysts is for revenues of US$2.55b in 2026. This reflects a solid 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 12% to US$3.80. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.69 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 13% to US$119, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$135 and the most bearish at US$64.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.8% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.