Stock Analysis

We Think Academy Sports and Outdoors (NASDAQ:ASO) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

NasdaqGS:ASO
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Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Academy Sports and Outdoors

How Much Debt Does Academy Sports and Outdoors Carry?

As you can see below, Academy Sports and Outdoors had US$487.6m of debt at February 2024, down from US$587.5m a year prior. However, it also had US$347.9m in cash, and so its net debt is US$139.6m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:ASO Debt to Equity History May 14th 2024

A Look At Academy Sports and Outdoors' Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Academy Sports and Outdoors had liabilities of US$879.9m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.84b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$347.9m and US$19.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.35b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Academy Sports and Outdoors has a market capitalization of US$4.16b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Academy Sports and Outdoors has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.18. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 14.7 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. But the bad news is that Academy Sports and Outdoors has seen its EBIT plunge 19% in the last twelve months. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Academy Sports and Outdoors can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Academy Sports and Outdoors recorded free cash flow worth 56% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

While Academy Sports and Outdoors's EBIT growth rate has us nervous. To wit both its interest cover and net debt to EBITDA were encouraging signs. We think that Academy Sports and Outdoors's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. In light of our reservations about the company's balance sheet, it seems sensible to check if insiders have been selling shares recently.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.