We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Safehold Valuation

Is SAFE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SAFE?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SAFE key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue21.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA25.7x
PEG Ratio1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SAFE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SAFE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.4x
FCPT Four Corners Property Trust
23.9x3.1%US$2.4b
PCH PotlatchDeltic
9.7x-52.1%US$3.6b
NSA National Storage Affiliates Trust
40.6x18.4%US$4.7b
EPR EPR Properties
19.3x5.8%US$3.0b
SAFE Safehold
15.1x13.2%US$2.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SAFE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the peer average (23.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SAFE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a4.4%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SAFE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the US REITs industry average (26.8x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SAFE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SAFE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.1x
Fair PE Ratio22.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SAFE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SAFE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SAFE ($32.82) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($29.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SAFE is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SAFE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$32.82
US$51.50
+56.9%
43.3%US$98.00US$30.00n/a6
Jan ’24US$28.62
US$51.67
+80.5%
42.9%US$98.00US$31.00n/a6
Dec ’23US$28.88
US$55.83
+93.3%
37.1%US$98.00US$31.00n/a6
Nov ’23US$30.63
US$61.17
+99.7%
35.7%US$98.00US$33.00n/a6
Oct ’23US$26.46
US$61.17
+131.2%
35.7%US$98.00US$33.00n/a6
Sep ’23US$37.95
US$64.83
+70.8%
28.3%US$98.00US$46.00n/a6
Aug ’23US$42.12
US$70.50
+67.4%
23.9%US$98.00US$46.00n/a8
Jul ’23US$37.35
US$72.38
+93.8%
26.3%US$100.00US$46.00n/a8
Jun ’23US$45.87
US$74.67
+62.8%
25.6%US$100.00US$46.00n/a9
May ’23US$43.05
US$78.67
+82.7%
18.5%US$100.00US$55.00n/a9
Apr ’23US$56.26
US$93.56
+66.3%
23.8%US$140.00US$66.00n/a9
Mar ’23US$60.41
US$94.67
+56.7%
26.1%US$150.00US$66.00n/a9
Feb ’23US$62.39
US$94.38
+51.3%
17.4%US$118.00US$75.00n/a8
Jan ’23US$79.85
US$97.50
+22.1%
14.4%US$118.00US$78.00US$28.628
Dec ’22US$69.09
US$98.00
+41.8%
13.6%US$118.00US$80.00US$28.888
Nov ’22US$76.52
US$98.00
+28.1%
13.6%US$118.00US$80.00US$30.638
Oct ’22US$72.68
US$99.13
+36.4%
13.9%US$126.00US$80.00US$26.468
Sep ’22US$90.71
US$99.13
+9.3%
13.9%US$126.00US$80.00US$37.958
Aug ’22US$90.32
US$99.13
+9.7%
13.9%US$126.00US$80.00US$42.128
Jul ’22US$78.50
US$92.88
+18.3%
16.2%US$125.00US$72.00US$37.358
Jun ’22US$71.36
US$87.86
+23.1%
10.9%US$100.00US$72.00US$45.877
May ’22US$70.71
US$88.29
+24.9%
10.4%US$100.00US$72.00US$43.057
Apr ’22US$71.00
US$88.14
+24.1%
10.3%US$100.00US$72.00US$56.267
Mar ’22US$76.41
US$90.57
+18.5%
13.6%US$112.00US$72.00US$60.417
Feb ’22US$74.44
US$81.71
+9.8%
15.4%US$101.00US$67.00US$62.397
Jan ’22US$72.49
US$72.17
-0.4%
6.2%US$79.00US$67.00US$79.856

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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