Safehold Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Safehold is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 8.8% and 4.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 3.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 5.1% in 3 years.

Key information

8.8%

Earnings growth rate

3.66%

EPS growth rate

Specialized REITs earnings growth	7.8%
Revenue growth rate	4.9%
Future return on equity	5.09%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	08 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 08

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Drive Outperformance Through Austin And Los Angeles

Analysts now see slightly higher upside for Safehold, nudging their price target from about $20.00 to roughly $20.09. This reflects fine tuned assumptions on fair value and future P/E, without major shifts in growth or margin expectations.

Narrative Update • Mar 21

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Support Long-Term Upside

Analysts have revised their $28.00 price target on Safehold, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. They have also applied a slightly lower discount rate to their cash flow outlook.

Narrative Update • Mar 07

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Drive Outperformance Through 2028

Analysts have adjusted their price target on Safehold to $20.00, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly lower revenue growth, a modestly narrower profit margin, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Safehold reported no share repurchases under its buyback program, with 0 shares repurchased for $0 million, and the company stated that the buyback announced on February 5, 2025 is now complete (Key Developments).

Narrative Update • Feb 21

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Signal Cautious Outlook

Analysts have reaffirmed a $14.00 price target for Safehold, citing slightly lower assumed revenue growth, a small improvement in profit margin, and a modestly reduced discount rate that together leave their overall valuation view essentially unchanged. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Safehold reported no share repurchases under its buyback program, with 0 shares repurchased for $0 million, and stated that this completed the repurchase activity under the buyback announced on February 5, 2025 (Key Developments).

Narrative Update • Feb 06

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Lease Expansion Will Drive Outperformance By 2027

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Safehold to about US$19.64 from roughly US$20.27. This reflects adjustments to their fair value work that now uses a slightly lower discount rate, modestly higher revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a somewhat lower future P/E multiple.

Narrative Update • Jan 23

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Shape Balanced Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Safehold from US$16.00 to US$14.00, citing updated assumptions that include a 12.5% discount rate, revenue growth of about 3.72%, a profit margin near 30.74% and a future P/E of roughly 10.49x. What's in the News Closed a ground lease for an Affordable Housing community in Woodland Hills, Los Angeles, targeting 207 units by 2028.

Narrative Update • Jan 09

SAFE: Affordable Housing Expansion In Los Angeles Will Drive Long-Term Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Safehold to US$28.00, citing updated assumptions that reflect slightly higher revenue growth and profit margin expectations, along with a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Safehold closed a ground lease for an Affordable Housing community in Woodland Hills, Los Angeles, targeting 207 units scheduled for delivery in 2028, in partnership with Meta Housing, an Affordable Housing developer based in Los Angeles (Key Developments).

Narrative Update • Dec 15

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Support Positive Long-Term Upside

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Safehold to $28.00, citing a slightly higher assumed future earnings multiple that more than offsets marginally softer long term growth and profitability expectations. What's in the News Safehold reports that, between July 1 and September 30, 2025, it repurchased 0 shares for $0 million, completing a previously announced buyback program without execution (Key Developments).

Narrative Update • Nov 30

SAFE: Expanding Los Angeles Housing Will Drive Outperformance By 2027

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Safehold from $20.00 to $20.27. This change reflects increased revenue growth expectations, even though there is a slightly lower profit margin outlook.

Narrative Update • Nov 16

SAFE: Revenue Slowdown Will Be Offset By Expanding Affordable Housing Portfolio

Analysts have lowered their price target for Safehold from $20.64 to $20.00, citing a slowdown in expected revenue growth. This change in expectations outweighs improvements in profit margin and valuation metrics.

Narrative Update • Nov 01

SAFE: Ground Lease Expansion Will Drive Affordable Housing Delivery By 2029

Analysts have maintained their price target for Safehold at $20.64 per share. This reflects stable expectations based on unchanged fundamentals and updated forecasts.

Narrative Update • Oct 17

Ground Lease Adoption Will Expand Multifamily Housing Options

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Safehold, lowering it by $0.05 per share. This adjustment is due to modestly slower projected revenue growth and a marginal dip in profit margin expectations.

Narrative Update • Oct 03

Ground Lease Adoption Will Expand Multifamily Housing Options

Analysts have lowered their price target for Safehold from $21.40 to $20.64 per share, citing modest increases in projected revenue growth and profit margins, along with a reduced future price-to-earnings multiple. What's in the News Safehold Inc.

New Narrative • Feb 13

Expanding Into Affordable Multifamily Sector Will Unlock New Opportunities

Safehold's expansion into the Multifamily market's affordable sector aims to boost revenue with stable cash flows and high occupancy rates.

Seeking Alpha • Feb 03

Safehold & Star Holdings: The Cookie At The End Of The Rainbow

Summary SAFE's bubble was evident due to three easy to see problems. Treasuries were an obvious bubble as well. Both bubbles have come undone. We tell you why we are buying Treasuries, but not SAFE. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jan 15

Safehold Vs. Treasuries

Summary Safehold's stock price is highly correlated with the 30-year Treasury bond rate. SAFE's business model involves secure, long-term ground leases, often compared to long-term bonds, providing stable cash flows and high credit ratings. SAFE is a leveraged play on long-term interest rates; its price movements are largely driven by changes in Treasury rates, not operational factors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Nov 04

Safehold: Time To Cover This High-Beta Bond Proxy

Summary We had initiated a short position in Safehold as part of a paired trade. We closed that one out. We go over the rationale behind that and explain why the REIT still remains a poor choice for a long term investment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Sep 23

Safehold To Star Holdings: A Paired Trade

Summary Star Holdings' primary asset is its stake in Safehold Inc. The unwinding of its secondary assets should likely be done in another two and a half years. Star Holdings likely doubles if Safehold stays static at the current price. Alternatively, Safehold needs to fall by 50% to justify the current price for Star Holdings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jul 15

Safehold: Two Requirements To Make It To $30

Summary We had previously suggested that Safehold would make it over the $20 mark. The recent rally has accomplished that, and the bulls are licking their chops ahead of the expected rate cuts. We go over the recent results and tell you what needs to happen to see $30. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Apr 26

Are The 6.6% Yielding A Rated Bonds A Safehold?

Summary In our previous coverage we had suggested that Safehold bonds were a better bet than the common shares. That thesis has played out quite well over time, despite the pressures of rising interest rates. We look at the latest bonds from Safehold, which sport the highest yield in its stack. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Feb 14

After Q4 Results And Share Price Drop, Safehold Is Still A Buy

Summary Safehold's stock performance has not met my expectations in 2024, with losses of over 11% to date. The market repricing its expectations on interest rate cuts has been the key driver behind this drop. Despite this, Q4 2023 results show that Safehold continues to deliver stable financial performance and has strengthened its risk profile. In this article, I review Q4 2023 results and outline my stance on the buy thesis for SAFE. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jan 23

Safehold: All Eyes On Yields

Summary Safehold's business model generates a very steady cash flow. But the valuation is very sensitive to interest rates, despite virtually all debt fixed-rate. I share my outlook for the REIT. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Dec 12

Safehold: Greatly Positioned For An Outperformance (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Safehold has seen strong performance, outperforming the broader REIT market with a 24.8% total return. Q3 2023 results showed stable operating results and minor investment activity, indicating an unchanged situation in the market. Over the quarter, Safehold achieved an upper investment-grade credit rating from Moody's and made notable steps in deleveraging its balance sheet. Despite the recent run-up in the share price, SAFE is still ~68% below its peak when the Fed started to increase rates. Once the Company has improved its capital structure even further and the interest rates seem to assume a declining trajectory, SAFE has become an even more attractive investment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Nov 15

Take A Bite Of Star Holdings If You Are Bullish On Safehold

Summary Star Holdings is a spin-off company from iStar Financial, focusing on the development and disposal of real estate assets. STHO has $300 million in real estate assets that could potentially offset expenses and pay off debt obligations. We look at the valuation in relation to Safehold shares and the risks of a margin call liquidation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Nov 07

Safehold: A Billionaire's Bet On Ground Leases

Summary Safehold is a ground lease REIT that has experienced significant growth in recent years. The company has faced challenges in 2023 due to financing costs and interest rate changes. Despite these challenges, Safehold remains financially stable with a strong credit rating and ample liquidity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Oct 11

Safehold Is About To Be Clobbered By Interest Rates

Summary Safehold is facing difficulties due to poor timing, excessive management compensation, and aggressive accounting practices. The company is losing cash as a significant portion of their rent is non-cash GAAP straight line rent, while interest expense has increased. Safehold is unable to raise rents significantly due to long-term rental contracts, leading to negative cash flow. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Sep 26

Safehold: Playing The Duration Risk Via A REIT Vehicle

Summary Safehold is a unique ground lease REIT with a market cap of $1.2 billion. The high interest rate environment has increased demand for Safehold's offering, allowing customers to reduce expensive upfront CapEx and distribute it over a long-term lease. Safehold's business operations provide reliable and predictable cash flows, supported by long-term ground leases and a robust capital structure. Currently, Safehold trades below its IPO price despite significantly stronger cash generations and a more diversified portfolio. The decrease is explained by the duration risk. Safe is poised to significantly outperform its peers in an environment where we will be experiencing a gradual reduction of the interest rates. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:SAFE - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028	451	139	N/A	123	6
12/31/2027	446	128	N/A	100	8
12/31/2026	425	121	N/A	67	8
3/31/2026	417	114	30	30	N/A
12/31/2025	404	114	48	48	N/A
9/30/2025	399	113	43	43	N/A
6/30/2025	394	103	53	53	N/A
3/31/2025	391	104	50	50	N/A
12/31/2024	389	106	38	38	N/A
9/30/2024	387	121	53	53	N/A
6/30/2024	385	-21	47	47	N/A
3/31/2024	381	-29	19	19	N/A
12/31/2023	362	-55	15	15	N/A
9/30/2023	342	-74	5	5	N/A
6/30/2023	323	115	9	9	N/A
3/31/2023	297	115	33	33	N/A
12/31/2022	279	135	65	65	N/A
9/30/2022	258	135	66	66	N/A
6/30/2022	234	89	72	72	N/A
3/31/2022	212	81	56	56	N/A
12/31/2021	193	73	27	27	N/A
9/30/2021	180	67	23	23	N/A
6/30/2021	169	61	18	18	N/A
3/31/2021	162	59	23	23	N/A
12/31/2020	159	59	36	36	N/A
9/30/2020	148	55	28	28	N/A
6/30/2020	131	46	18	18	N/A
3/31/2020	112	38	9	9	N/A
12/31/2019	93	28	N/A	-2	N/A
9/30/2019	78	21	N/A	-2	N/A
6/30/2019	68	17	N/A	4	N/A
3/31/2019	58	15	N/A	5	N/A
12/31/2018	50	12	N/A	14	N/A
9/30/2018	40	6	N/A	12	N/A
6/30/2018	35	3	N/A	13	N/A
3/31/2018	30	0	N/A	10	N/A
12/31/2017	23	-4	N/A	9	N/A
9/30/2017	24	1	N/A	8	N/A
6/30/2017	23	3	N/A	6	N/A
3/31/2017	22	6	N/A	5	N/A
12/31/2016	22	7	N/A	5	N/A
9/30/2016	21	7	N/A	5	N/A
6/30/2016	21	6	N/A	6	N/A
3/31/2016	20	6	N/A	7	N/A
12/31/2015	19	5	N/A	5	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SAFE's forecast earnings growth (8.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: SAFE's earnings (8.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SAFE's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: SAFE's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SAFE's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SAFE's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.1%).

Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2026/05/13 09:48
End of Day Share Price	2026/05/13 00:00
Earnings	2026/03/31
Annual Earnings	2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Safehold Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Nathan Crossett	Berenberg
Nathan Crossett	BNP Paribas
Derek Hewett	BofA Global Research

Safehold Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target decreased by 7.5% to US$26.25

Price target increased by 7.4% to US$28.45

Price target decreased by 8.3% to US$26.70

Price target decreased by 9.7% to US$29.11

Recent updates

Safehold: Return-Free-Risk Comes To Haunt Investors

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside

First quarter 2026 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Safehold Expands Portfolio with US$68 Million in New Deals and Texas Entry

Safehold Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 30, 2026

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Drive Long-Term Upside

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Drive Outperformance Through Austin And Los Angeles

Safehold Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 14, 2026

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Support Long-Term Upside

Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Safehold Inc. Declares Common Stock Dividend for the First Quarter of 2026, Payable on April 15, 2026

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Drive Outperformance Through 2028

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Signal Cautious Outlook

Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Lease Expansion Will Drive Outperformance By 2027

Safehold Inc. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 11, 2026

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Shape Balanced Outlook

SAFE: Affordable Housing Expansion In Los Angeles Will Drive Long-Term Upside

Third quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Safehold Inc. Declares Common Stock Dividend for the Fourth Quarter of 2025, Payable on January 15, 2026

SAFE: Affordable Housing Ground Leases Will Support Positive Long-Term Upside

Safehold Inc. Appoints Michael Trachtenberg as President

SAFE: Expanding Los Angeles Housing Will Drive Outperformance By 2027

SAFE: Revenue Slowdown Will Be Offset By Expanding Affordable Housing Portfolio

Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

SAFE: Ground Lease Expansion Will Drive Affordable Housing Delivery By 2029

Safehold Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 05, 2025

Ground Lease Adoption Will Expand Multifamily Housing Options

Ground Lease Adoption Will Expand Multifamily Housing Options

Second quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Safehold Inc. Announces Third Quarterly Dividend of 2025, Payable on October 15, 2025

Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise

Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Safehold Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 05, 2025

First quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Safehold Inc. announces Quarterly dividend, payable on July 15, 2025

Safehold Inc. Announces Executive Changes

First quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Safehold Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 06, 2025

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18%

Safehold Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2025

Safehold Inc. Announces the Resignation of Jesse Hom as Director, Effective May 15, 2025

Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Safehold Inc. Declares Common Stock Dividends for the First Quarter of 2025, Payable on April 15, 2025

Expanding Into Affordable Multifamily Sector Will Unlock New Opportunities

New major risk - Dividend sustainability

Safehold Inc. (NYSE:SAFE) announces an Equity Buyback for $50 million worth of its shares.

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Safehold & Star Holdings: The Cookie At The End Of The Rainbow

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Safehold Inc. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 05, 2025

Price target decreased by 7.5% to US$26.25

Safehold Vs. Treasuries

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

Insufficient new directors

Now 21% overvalued

Third quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Safehold Inc. Declares Fourth Quarter 2024 Common Stock Dividend, Payable on January 15, 2025

Now 22% overvalued

Safehold: Time To Cover This High-Beta Bond Proxy

Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Safehold Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 28, 2024

Safehold To Star Holdings: A Paired Trade

Second quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Safehold Declares Third Quarter 2024 Common Stock Dividend, Payable on October 15, 2024

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Safehold Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 29, 2024

Safehold: Two Requirements To Make It To $30

First quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Safehold Inc. Declares Second Quarter 2024 Common Stock Dividend, Payable on July 15, 2024

First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations