RPT Realty Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Investors in RPT Realty (NYSE:RPT) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.6% to close at US$10.80 following the release of its yearly results. Revenues were US$218m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.89, an impressive 280% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for RPT Realty

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering RPT Realty, is for revenues of US$203.0m in 2023, which would reflect a noticeable 6.8% reduction in RPT Realty's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 91% to US$0.084 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$216.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.057 in 2023. Although the analysts have lowered their sales forecasts, they've also made a massive increase in their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.

There's been no real change to the average price target of US$11.05, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic RPT Realty analyst has a price target of US$14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that RPT Realty's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 6.8% to the end of 2023. This tops off a historical decline of 5.3% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.1% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately RPT Realty is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around RPT Realty's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple RPT Realty analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with RPT Realty (including 2 which are a bit unpleasant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.