Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR): Evaluating Valuation After Recent Share Price Pullback

Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) stock has edged lower this week, slipping about 2% over the past month. Investors are watching upcoming catalysts for clues as the Southern California-focused REIT seeks to balance new property acquisitions with revenue growth.

See our latest analysis for Rexford Industrial Realty.

Rexford’s share price had a modest lift earlier in 2024, but recent weeks have seen momentum fade with the stock down nearly 3% over the last month. While the year-to-date share price return is still positive at 6.7%, longer-term total shareholder returns remain muted. This reflects a mix of cautious optimism and ongoing market skepticism.

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With recent pullbacks and Rexford trading below some analyst price targets, the question becomes clear: is Rexford Industrial Realty undervalued right now, or is the market fully accounting for its future growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 7% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative points to a fair value of $44.13 for Rexford, compared to the last closing price of $40.99. This fair value estimate sits slightly above the market price, suggesting analysts see untapped upside driven by fundamental business factors.

Rexford's focus on repositioning and redevelopment of infill Southern California assets is unlocking significant embedded growth, with $70 million of incremental NOI in process or lease-up, and ongoing pipeline activity supporting future same-property earnings and NOI expansion. Persistent land constraints and growing resistance to new industrial development in major Southern California urban centers are expected to drive long-term scarcity value for Rexford's existing, well-located properties. This supports rent growth and asset appreciation, which should positively impact revenue and NAV over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want a peek behind the curtain? Discover the surprising assumptions on revenue, earnings, and profit multiples that this narrative is built on. These drivers are shaping the valuation debate for Rexford. Find out what could push the price even higher or challenge this optimistic fair value projection.

Result: Fair Value of $44.13 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained downward rent trends or delays in redeveloping key properties could weigh on Rexford’s revenue growth and could challenge the bullish narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Rexford Industrial Realty narrative.

Build Your Own Rexford Industrial Realty Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to explore the numbers firsthand, you can craft your own perspective quickly and easily. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Rexford Industrial Realty research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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