Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR): Assessing Valuation After Raised 2025 Outlook and $500 Million Buyback Announcement

Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) is making headlines after raising its 2025 earnings guidance, following stronger third-quarter results and a series of shareholder-friendly moves. The company also announced a new $500 million buyback program.

See our latest analysis for Rexford Industrial Realty.

Rexford Industrial Realty’s upbeat earnings, raised 2025 outlook, and new buyback plan have caught investor attention. The share price has climbed 14% over the past three months, showing renewed momentum. However, the one-year total shareholder return remains slightly negative, which highlights a longer-term recovery still underway.

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With shares rallying but still trading near analyst price targets, investors are left to consider whether Rexford Industrial Realty is undervalued after its strong results and buybacks, or if the market already reflects its future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

The most widely followed narrative pegs Rexford Industrial Realty’s fair value at $43, nearly identical to the last closing price of $42.98. That means analysts and followers see the recent share surge as warranted, at least for now, pointing to confidence in the company’s current position.

Persistent land constraints and growing resistance to new industrial development in major Southern California urban centers will continue to drive long-term scarcity value for Rexford's existing, well-located properties. This supports rent growth and asset appreciation, which should positively impact revenue and NAV over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand the scarcity story that’s shaping this valuation? The fair value hangs on assumptions about future growth, market forces, and profit strength. Only the full narrative reveals the sequence of projections and the financial logic that keep Rexford’s price so closely tied to today’s fundamentals.

Result: Fair Value of $43 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks such as falling market rents and significant redevelopment delays could quickly challenge the case for Rexford's continued earnings growth and valuation strength.

Find out about the key risks to this Rexford Industrial Realty narrative.

Build Your Own Rexford Industrial Realty Narrative

If you think there’s another angle or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, you can craft your own view in just minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Rexford Industrial Realty research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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