We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Empire State Realty Trust Valuation

Is ESRT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ESRT?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ESRT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA12.3x
PEG Ratio-1.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ESRT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ESRT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average45.2x
ESBA Empire State Realty OP
61xn/aUS$2.0b
AAT American Assets Trust
41.5x0.3%US$2.2b
ALEX Alexander & Baldwin
52.5x22.9%US$1.4b
BNL Broadstone Net Lease
25.7x8.7%US$3.2b
ESRT Empire State Realty Trust
58.2x-31.1%US$2.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ESRT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (58.2x) compared to the peer average (45.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ESRT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a4.1%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ESRT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (58.2x) compared to the US REITs industry average (25.8x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ESRT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ESRT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio58.2x
Fair PE Ratio13.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ESRT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (58.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ESRT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ESRT ($7.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ESRT is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ESRT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$7.45
US$7.96
+6.8%
19.7%US$10.00US$5.00n/a6
Nov ’23US$7.25
US$8.17
+12.6%
18.9%US$10.00US$5.00n/a6
Oct ’23US$6.56
US$8.63
+31.5%
19.2%US$10.50US$5.50n/a6
Sep ’23US$6.96
US$8.71
+25.1%
19.4%US$10.50US$5.50n/a6
Aug ’23US$8.35
US$8.46
+1.3%
19.2%US$10.50US$5.50n/a6
Jul ’23US$7.18
US$9.61
+33.8%
31.5%US$16.00US$5.50n/a7
Jun ’23US$7.85
US$10.36
+31.9%
24.0%US$16.00US$8.00n/a7
May ’23US$8.64
US$10.69
+23.7%
23.4%US$16.00US$8.00n/a7
Apr ’23US$9.76
US$10.98
+12.4%
22.4%US$16.00US$8.00n/a8
Mar ’23US$9.36
US$11.25
+20.2%
14.4%US$14.00US$8.50n/a8
Feb ’23US$9.18
US$11.25
+22.5%
14.4%US$14.00US$8.50n/a8
Jan ’23US$8.90
US$11.19
+25.7%
14.6%US$14.00US$8.50n/a8
Dec ’22US$8.91
US$12.13
+36.1%
11.2%US$14.00US$9.50n/a8
Nov ’22US$9.73
US$12.19
+25.3%
10.8%US$14.00US$9.50US$7.258
Oct ’22US$10.50
US$12.28
+17.0%
11.8%US$14.00US$9.50US$6.568
Sep ’22US$10.24
US$12.44
+21.5%
9.9%US$14.00US$10.50US$6.968
Aug ’22US$11.43
US$12.94
+13.2%
12.4%US$16.00US$10.50US$8.358
Jul ’22US$12.11
US$13.00
+7.3%
12.6%US$16.00US$10.50US$7.188
Jun ’22US$12.30
US$12.07
-1.9%
13.2%US$14.00US$10.00US$7.857
May ’22US$11.39
US$11.75
+3.2%
12.4%US$14.00US$10.00US$8.648
Apr ’22US$11.37
US$11.66
+2.5%
13.4%US$14.00US$10.00US$9.768
Mar ’22US$11.38
US$11.53
+1.3%
13.2%US$14.00US$10.00US$9.368
Feb ’22US$9.79
US$10.94
+11.7%
19.1%US$14.00US$7.75US$9.188
Jan ’22US$9.32
US$11.00
+18.0%
18.4%US$14.00US$7.75US$8.908
Dec ’21US$9.28
US$9.56
+3.0%
22.6%US$14.00US$6.50US$8.918
Nov ’21US$5.38
US$8.11
+50.7%
19.9%US$11.00US$6.50US$9.737

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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