A Fresh Look at Healthpeak Properties (DOC) Valuation Following FTSE All-World Index Removal

Healthpeak Properties (DOC) just found itself in the headlines after being removed from the FTSE All-World Index, an event that often puts stocks under pressure because of the ripple effects of index-based funds adjusting their portfolios. For investors watching DOC, this development is more than a routine reshuffle. It raises new questions about demand for the shares and how the market is appraising the company’s long-term prospects right now. Whenever an index says goodbye, the lingering impact often shows up in stock price swings and sentiment shifts that are hard to ignore.

The timing of this change comes as Healthpeak Properties has had a bumpy run. The stock is down 13% over the past year and still negative for 2024, even with a modest bounce of 4% during the month. Previous moves, like the recent analyst upgrade to Outperform, have done little to shift the bigger picture, which shows longer-term returns trailing and momentum that has yet to fully recover. The index exclusion could be a catalyst, but it lands against a backdrop of slow, steady fundamentals and only modest signs of renewed interest.

After all that, the big question is whether this dip means DOC is on sale or if the market is simply reflecting the company’s growth outlook. Is there real value here, or is everything already baked in?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.6% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative presents Healthpeak Properties as undervalued relative to its calculated fair value, based on a mix of growth assumptions, projected financials, and a sector-specific discount rate. The gap between price and estimated fair value highlights how projected earnings and a future profit multiple are influencing the analysis.

The accelerating shift of surgical and specialty care from inpatient hospital settings to outpatient centers, supported by anticipated regulatory changes (CMS inpatient-only default reversal), is set to drive sustained tenant demand and pricing power for Healthpeak's modern, high-acuity outpatient medical buildings. This trend could lead to increased occupancy rates and same-store NOI growth.

Why is Healthpeak Properties seen as a value play in this market? The answer lies deep in a set of aggressive revenue, profit, and margin forecasts that few investors would expect for a healthcare-focused REIT. Discover which core numbers the narrative leans on and why analysts say this fair value is within reach. The engine behind this estimate might surprise even seasoned market watchers.

Result: Fair Value of $21.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent credit risks among biotech tenants or weakness in capital markets could quickly reverse Healthpeak's margin progress and slow future earnings growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Healthpeak Properties narrative.

Another View: Through a Different Lens

Taking a closer look at Healthpeak Properties against the industry, the latest figures suggest it is trading at a higher valuation than its sector peers. This challenges the “undervalued” story, so which side holds up?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Healthpeak Properties to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Healthpeak Properties Narrative

If you see things differently or prefer your own perspective, explore the figures firsthand and put together your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Healthpeak Properties research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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