Americold Realty Trust (COLD): Evaluating Valuation After Dividend Hike Signals Management Confidence

If you have been tracking Americold Realty Trust (COLD), their latest move might have caught your eye. The company just declared a $0.23 per share dividend for Q3 2025, holding steady with last quarter and representing a 5% increase compared to the same period a year ago. For many investors, a dividend hike like this is a powerful signal and is often interpreted as a sign that management feels confident about the company’s underlying earnings strength and visibility. When a board votes to pay out more to shareholders, particularly in cash, it tends to attract attention in uncertain environments where confidence can be fleeting.

This dividend affirmation comes at a time when Americold’s stock performance has been under pressure. The shares are down nearly 50% over the past year and have posted losses for both the month and past three months, suggesting that negative momentum has been present for an extended period. At the same time, annual revenue has grown by 6% and net income has risen by more than 54%, signaling improved operational performance even as the market seems to be pricing in risk or skepticism about the future outlook for growth.

The question for investors now is straightforward: with the dividend up and the stock moving the other way, is Americold Realty Trust underappreciated, or is the market already factoring in its growth story?

Most Popular Narrative: 29.9% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Americold Realty Trust is considered significantly undervalued by nearly 30%, based on future earnings projections and a higher analyst price target compared to the current share price. The narrative is driven by expectations of accelerating revenue and margin expansion, despite recent market skepticism.

Ongoing global growth in food consumption and rising population, combined with Americold's expanding international footprint and new facility openings in high-demand regions (such as Allentown, Dubai, and Asia Pacific), positions the company to benefit from increasing demand for temperature-controlled storage. This supports higher occupancy and long-term revenue growth as macro headwinds abate.

Want to know what is fueling this bold valuation call? The forecast is pinned on specific growth levers that could redefine Americold’s future. Behind the headline figure are assumptions about rapid profit improvement and margin recovery not usually seen in this sector. Intrigued about which dynamic projections set Americold apart and lift it to a near-record discount? Find out what underlying numbers signal a potentially major upside.

Result: Fair Value of $19.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent demand headwinds and increasing customer reliance on their own cold storage could present challenges for Americold in converting projected growth into earnings.

Find out about the key risks to this Americold Realty Trust narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Perspective

While the first valuation relies on market multiples, our DCF model uses future cash flow projections to assess Americold Realty Trust's value. This method also suggests the stock is significantly undervalued. Could these methods both be seeing the same upside, or is there more beneath the surface?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Americold Realty Trust for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Americold Realty Trust Narrative

If you view things differently or want to dive into the details yourself, you can quickly build your own perspective in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Americold Realty Trust research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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