Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:BNL) Just Reported Annual Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Investors in Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:BNL) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.0% to close at US$15.96 following the release of its annual results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$432m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.7% to hit US$0.86 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Broadstone Net Lease

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Broadstone Net Lease's eight analysts is for revenues of US$448.1m in 2025. This reflects a credible 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 17% to US$0.71 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$445.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.75 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$18.56, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Broadstone Net Lease analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$16.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Broadstone Net Lease's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 23 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Broadstone Net Lease's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Broadstone Net Lease. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Broadstone Net Lease going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Broadstone Net Lease .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.