The five-year earnings decline is not helping Acadia Realty Trust's (NYSE:AKR share price, as stock falls another 4.6% in past week

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 11, 2022
NYSE:AKR
Source: Shutterstock

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Acadia Realty Trust (NYSE:AKR) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 33% over a half decade.

Since Acadia Realty Trust has shed US$93m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

View our latest analysis for Acadia Realty Trust

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Acadia Realty Trust became profitable within the last five years. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

Revenue is actually up 4.8% over the time period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:AKR Earnings and Revenue Growth April 11th 2022

We know that Acadia Realty Trust has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Acadia Realty Trust will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Acadia Realty Trust, it has a TSR of -21% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Acadia Realty Trust shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 8.8% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 4% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Acadia Realty Trust (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

But note: Acadia Realty Trust may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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