Earnings Not Telling The Story For AMREP Corporation (NYSE:AXR) After Shares Rise 29%

AMREP Corporation (NYSE:AXR) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 127% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

Since its price has surged higher, AMREP's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.3x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, AMREP's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for AMREP

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on AMREP will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Enough Growth For AMREP?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, AMREP would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 56%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 60% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 15% shows it's about the same on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it interesting that AMREP is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends would weigh down the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On AMREP's P/E

AMREP's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that AMREP currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is only in line with the wider market forecast. When we see average earnings with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with AMREP.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.