Stevanato Group S.p.A. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for Stevanato Group S.p.A. (NYSE:STVN) shareholders, with its shares surging 20% to US$22.72 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues of €278m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €0.11, missing estimates by 8.4%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Stevanato Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Stevanato Group from ten analysts is for revenues of €1.18b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 8.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 30% to €0.55. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.56 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$26.51, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Stevanato Group at US$37.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$21.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Stevanato Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this to the 65 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Stevanato Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Stevanato Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Stevanato Group (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.