Stevanato Group S.p.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a sad week for Stevanato Group S.p.A. (NYSE:STVN), who've watched their investment drop 18% to US$21.82 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €236m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 34% to hit €0.07 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Stevanato Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Stevanato Group from nine analysts is for revenues of €1.13b in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be €0.50, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.59 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 16% to US$29.37, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Stevanato Group at US$37.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$23.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Stevanato Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Stevanato Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Stevanato Group's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Stevanato Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Stevanato Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.