Do Fundamentals Have Any Role To Play In Driving Pfizer Inc.'s (NYSE:PFE) Stock Up Recently?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 28, 2020

Most readers would already know that Pfizer's (NYSE:PFE) stock increased by 2.4% over the past three months. As most would know, long-term fundamentals have a strong correlation with market price movements, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on Pfizer's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Pfizer

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Pfizer is:

13% = US$8.7b ÷ US$65b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2020).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.13 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Pfizer's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

To start with, Pfizer's ROE looks acceptable. Even so, when compared with the average industry ROE of 17%, we aren't very excited. Although, we can see that Pfizer saw a modest net income growth of 14% over the past five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place. However, not to forget, the company does have a decent ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So this also does lend some color to the fairly high earnings growth seen by the company.

We then performed a comparison between Pfizer's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 17% in the same period.

NYSE:PFE Past Earnings Growth December 28th 2020

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Pfizer is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Pfizer Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 51% (or a retention ratio of 49%) for Pfizer suggests that the company's growth wasn't really hampered despite it returning most of its income to its shareholders.

Moreover, Pfizer is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 55%. Still, forecasts suggest that Pfizer's future ROE will rise to 22% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that Pfizer certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Especially the substantial growth in earnings backed by a decent ROE. Despite the company reinvesting only a small portion of its profits, it still has managed to grow its earnings so that is appreciable. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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