Does Merck's (MRK) New Oncology Milestones Signal a Shift in Its Late-Stage Pipeline Strategy?

• In the past weeks, Merck and its collaborators announced significant regulatory and clinical milestones, including FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for ifinatamab deruxtecan in small cell lung cancer, initiation of a phase 3 trial for patritumab deruxtecan in breast cancer, and released new cardiology research at the European Society of Cardiology Congress 2025.
• These developments underscore Merck's active efforts to advance its late-stage pipeline with multiple programs targeting areas of high unmet medical need in oncology and cardiovascular disease.
• We'll examine how Merck's latest oncology designations and trial initiations could influence its growth outlook and future investment narrative.

We've found 19 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Merck Investment Narrative Recap

Merck’s investment case rests on belief in its ability to innovate and commercialize new therapies that offset looming revenue headwinds, particularly the future loss of KEYTRUDA exclusivity. The recent milestones, especially the FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for ifinatamab deruxtecan, should strengthen confidence in Merck's late-stage pipeline but are not expected to alter the most immediate catalyst: sustaining revenue momentum from new product launches; nor do they mitigate the risk of intensifying global competition from emerging treatments in oncology.

The initiation of the HERTHENA-Breast04 phase 3 trial for patritumab deruxtecan, targeting hard-to-treat breast cancer, stands out as a meaningful addition to Merck's efforts to broaden its oncology portfolio. This development reinforces Merck’s stated catalyst of bringing new potential blockbusters to market to support future growth. However, the near-term story for shareholders will still hinge on...

Read the full narrative on Merck (it's free!)

Merck's narrative projects $72.1 billion revenue and $24.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.3% yearly revenue growth and a $7.8 billion earnings increase from the current $16.4 billion.

Uncover how Merck's forecasts yield a $100.41 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirty community members from Simply Wall St provided fair value estimates for Merck, ranging from US$80 up to US$208 per share. Many focus on the company’s pipeline as a major growth lever, but global competition could impact how this plays out, explore the full spectrum of perspectives before deciding what this means for your own view.

Explore 30 other fair value estimates on Merck - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Merck Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Merck research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Merck research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Merck's overall financial health at a glance.

Interested In Other Possibilities?

Our top stock finds are flying under the radar-for now. Get in early:

• AI is about to change healthcare. These 27 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.
• Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 22 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.
• These 14 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com