Merck & Co., Inc.

NYSE:MRK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$248.0b

Merck Valuation

Is MRK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MRK ($98.05) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($279.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MRK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRK?

Key metric: As MRK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MRK. This is calculated by dividing MRK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MRK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.4x
EarningsUS$12.15b
Market CapUS$248.03b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MRK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MRK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average42.9x
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
23.6x10.6%US$347.8b
LLY Eli Lilly
82.6x29.8%US$691.3b
PFE Pfizer
35x14.8%US$149.4b
ZTS Zoetis
30.6x10.0%US$74.4b
MRK Merck
20.4x16.0%US$248.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MRK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x) compared to the peer average (42.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MRK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OGN Organon
2.9x-8.3%US$3.75b
NDOI Endo
0.5xn/aUS$1.83b
KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals
1.8x-40.4%US$9.81m
EDXC Endexx
0.8xn/aUS$5.57m
MRK 20.4xIndustry Avg. 16.7xNo. of Companies9PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MRK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.4x
Fair PE Ratio38.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MRK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$98.05
US$128.73
+31.3%
11.3%US$155.00US$100.00n/a25
Dec ’25US$101.64
US$130.33
+28.2%
10.6%US$155.00US$100.00n/a25
Nov ’25US$101.88
US$133.56
+31.1%
7.9%US$155.00US$110.00n/a27
Oct ’25US$114.74
US$139.03
+21.2%
5.8%US$155.00US$120.00n/a26
Sep ’25US$118.45
US$139.22
+17.5%
5.9%US$155.00US$120.00n/a26
Aug ’25US$113.82
US$141.14
+24.0%
5.5%US$155.00US$120.00n/a26
Jul ’25US$127.90
US$142.68
+11.6%
5.3%US$155.00US$120.00n/a25
Jun ’25US$125.54
US$141.88
+13.0%
6.1%US$155.00US$118.00n/a25
May ’25US$128.80
US$141.54
+9.9%
6.1%US$155.00US$118.00n/a26
Apr ’25US$130.99
US$136.21
+4.0%
5.7%US$148.00US$114.00n/a25
Mar ’25US$126.96
US$133.65
+5.3%
7.6%US$148.00US$103.00n/a26
Feb ’25US$126.38
US$127.73
+1.1%
7.6%US$140.00US$103.00n/a27
Jan ’25US$109.02
US$122.90
+12.7%
7.0%US$135.00US$103.00n/a28
Dec ’24US$103.46
US$123.61
+19.5%
6.8%US$135.00US$103.00US$101.6428
Nov ’24US$102.85
US$123.71
+20.3%
6.6%US$135.00US$103.00US$101.8827
Oct ’24US$102.95
US$122.82
+19.3%
6.8%US$135.00US$103.00US$114.7427
Sep ’24US$109.84
US$122.72
+11.7%
7.2%US$135.00US$97.00US$118.4528
Aug ’24US$105.28
US$123.27
+17.1%
7.0%US$135.00US$97.00US$113.8228
Jul ’24US$115.39
US$122.58
+6.2%
8.0%US$135.00US$97.00US$127.9026
Jun ’24US$110.93
US$122.89
+10.8%
8.3%US$136.00US$97.00US$125.5427
May ’24US$116.34
US$123.07
+5.8%
9.6%US$155.00US$97.00US$128.8028
Apr ’24US$106.39
US$120.07
+12.9%
10.9%US$155.00US$96.00US$130.9927
Mar ’24US$106.65
US$119.85
+12.4%
10.8%US$155.00US$96.00US$126.9626
Feb ’24US$106.98
US$117.58
+9.9%
9.3%US$136.00US$97.00US$126.3824
Jan ’24US$110.95
US$113.88
+2.6%
9.5%US$136.00US$97.00US$109.0224
Dec ’23US$109.80
US$109.61
-0.2%
6.9%US$125.00US$97.00US$103.4623

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:48
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Merck & Co., Inc. is covered by 61 analysts. 26 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ToungArgus Research Company
Fabrizio SpagnaAxia Financial Research
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research