Merck & Co., Inc.

NYSE:MRK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$279.4b

Merck Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Merck is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 18.5% and 3.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 19.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 35.5% in 3 years.

Key information

18.5%

Earnings growth rate

19.62%

EPS growth rate

Pharmaceuticals earnings growth14.1%
Revenue growth rate3.2%
Future return on equity35.51%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated05 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Merck & Co., Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Nov 02
Merck & Co., Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Recent updates

Merck: All The Focus On The Pipeline

May 03

MRK: Oncology Reorg And Deals For Targeted Therapies Will Support Higher P E Multiple

Analysts nudged the Merck price target higher by a few dollars per share, reflecting updated expectations for slightly lower revenue growth, a modestly higher profit margin, and a somewhat lower future P/E multiple, supported by recent research commentary on the pipeline and business development moves. Analyst Commentary Recent research has tilted positive around Merck, with several large firms adjusting their models and price targets to reflect updated views on the pipeline, partnered programs, and business development activity.

Merck & Co., Inc. – Tender Offer for Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Full Acquisition Transaction)

Author: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) Transaction Overview Merck & Co., Inc. (known as MSD outside the U.S. and Canada) has formally commenced a cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc., following the signing of a definitive agreement on March 25, 2026.

MRK: Oncology Reorg And Pipeline Deals Will Support Higher Future P E Multiple

Analysts have lifted their Merck price targets by up to the mid double digits in recent weeks, citing higher modeled revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, and updated views on future P/E multiples as Merck advances its pipeline and business development moves. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Merck has been broadly constructive, with a cluster of price target revisions and fresh initiations pointing to confidence in the company’s execution, pipeline progress, and M&A activity.

MRK: M&A Execution Risks Around Terns And Revolution Will Restrain Future Upside

Analysts have nudged Merck's fair value estimate higher to approximately $101.30, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly stronger revenue growth, a modestly higher profit margin, and a marginally lower future P/E. This view is supported by a wave of recent price target increases into the $130 to $150 range and fresh Outperform or Overweight initiations on the stock.

MRK: Pipeline Readouts And Oncology Reorg Will Support Higher Future P E Multiple

The analyst price target for Merck has been reset from $136 to $150. This reflects analysts' updated assumptions for modestly higher revenue growth, a stronger profit margin profile, and a slightly lower future P/E multiple, supported by recent research that highlights potential upside from Sac TMT, upcoming launches, and key Phase 3 readouts.

MRK: Keytruda Cliff And M&A Uncertainty Will Likely Curb Long Term Upside

Analysts have lifted their Merck fair value estimate from $83.00 to about $101.04, pointing to broad price target hikes across the Street and citing confidence in upcoming product launches, Phase 3 readouts, and management's approach to the Keytruda loss of exclusivity. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Merck has tilted positive, with several firms lifting price targets and starting the stock with favorable ratings.

MRK: Pipeline Readouts And Gardasil Policy Shifts Will Shape Forward Risk Balance

Analysts have lifted their Merck fair value estimate from $115.11 to $124.88, citing a higher expected future P/E, modestly higher projected revenue growth, and a series of recent price target hikes that highlight confidence in upcoming launches and data readouts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Merck points to a generally constructive tone, with many firms adjusting ratings and price targets in a way that supports a higher fair value, while still flagging a few execution and policy watchpoints for investors to track.

MRK: Rising Confidence In Pipeline Execution To Support Richer Future P E Multiple

Analysts have nudged our Merck fair value estimate higher to $136, reflecting a higher average price target across firms such as Scotiabank, Goldman Sachs, BMO, BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo, Bernstein, Cantor Fitzgerald, TD Cowen, and others, who cite stronger top line expectations, updated margin assumptions, and a richer future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Across recent research, bullish analysts are largely aligned in their view that Merck is executing well enough to support higher valuation assumptions.

The Oncology Anchor: Why Merck’s 46% Discount Defies the Keytruda Cliff

Merck’s 2026 narrative is a high-stakes drama centered on Keytruda , the world’s top-selling cancer drug. For years, the market has treated Merck like a "one-trick pony" due to the looming 2028 "patent cliff," where Keytruda will lose its legal protection and face generic competition.

MRK: M&A Pipeline And Gardasil Policy Shifts Will Shape Future Risk Balance

Analysts lifted their Merck fair value estimate by about $8.50 to $115.11 per share as they factor in a higher future P/E multiple, recent price target increases from several firms, and growing confidence in the company being added to BofA's "US 1 List." Analyst Commentary Recent research on Merck gives you a mix of confidence in the company’s execution and some clear areas to watch. Here is how the current commentary breaks down.

MRK: Cidara Flu Deal Will Likely Highlight Overstated Long Term Hopes

Narrative Update The analyst price target for Merck has moved higher to a range of about $105 to $135. Analysts point to sector re-ratings, recent upgrades to Outperform, and confidence in the company’s product pipeline and deal activity as key drivers of their updated views.

MRK: Cidara Flu Deal Will Likely Expose Overstated Long Term Expectations

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Merck higher, lifting the price target by $1 to $83 as they factor in stronger revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple supported by recent positive research initiations and deal activity. Analyst Commentary Street research around Merck has turned more constructive in recent weeks, with several firms highlighting an improving growth outlook and a more attractive risk reward profile.

Merck predicts unstoppable growth with KEYTRUDA and WINREVAIR hitting record hihs

based on Q3 result

MRK: Cidara Acquisition And Patent Overhang Will Shape Future Risk Reward Balance

Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Merck to approximately $106.62 from about $104.27 per share, citing the higher Street price target of $105, growing confidence in its infectious disease and oncology pipeline, and the view that shares remain attractively valued relative to the company's long term growth prospects. Analyst Commentary Street research on Merck continues to highlight a constructive long term outlook balanced by execution and concentration risks, with recent notes refining expectations around valuation, pipeline durability, and capital allocation.

Merck (NYSE:MRK) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.85

Dec 02
Merck (NYSE:MRK) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.85

MRK: Recent Pipeline Deals And Patent Expiry Will Shape Outlook Ahead

Analysts have raised the price target for Merck to $105 from $98, citing stronger growth prospects and a more favorable valuation because of the company’s expanding pipeline and recent strategic deals. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst commentary on Merck highlights both positive momentum and notable risks that could influence the company’s trajectory in the months ahead.

Merck & Co., Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Nov 02
Merck & Co., Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

US Investments And New Product Launches Will Shape Future Markets

Merck’s analyst price target edged up to $101.75, driven by positive sentiment around the Verona Pharma acquisition’s boost to the respiratory portfolio, ongoing digital and oncology partnerships, and stable vaccine outlook. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts point to Merck’s $10B acquisition of Verona Pharma, seeing Verona’s Ohtu as a strategic anchor drug to expand Merck’s respiratory franchise and enhance competitiveness against major therapeutics in the space.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MRK - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202874,71622,77424,746N/A19
12/31/202770,17620,66724,457N/A20
12/31/202666,6309,22319,550N/A21
3/31/202665,7688,935N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202565,01118,25412,36016,472N/A
9/30/202564,23519,03413,04917,065N/A
6/30/202563,61616,40614,72218,534N/A
3/31/202563,92217,43417,03920,878N/A
12/31/202464,16817,11718,09621,468N/A
9/30/202463,17412,14814,84018,264N/A
6/30/202462,48013,73613,14716,690N/A
3/31/202461,4032,30611,04014,757N/A
12/31/202360,1153659,14313,006N/A
9/30/202359,3154,60813,16717,190N/A
6/30/202358,3113,11110,82815,075N/A
3/31/202357,86913,03011,26215,673N/A
12/31/202259,28314,51914,70719,095N/A
9/30/202258,97415,32215,24919,696N/A
6/30/202257,16916,64114,39818,891N/A
3/31/202253,97813,91012,87017,220N/A
12/31/202148,70412,3459,66114,109N/A
9/30/202146,1315,9088,40113,072N/A
6/30/202143,9063,6656,95311,897N/A
3/31/202141,8574,7936,65911,184N/A
12/31/202041,5184,5195,81210,241N/A
9/30/202042,4389,4926,90611,041N/A
6/30/202043,9069,0707,99611,645N/A
3/31/202046,3129,3998,94712,811N/A
12/31/201939,1215,690N/A13,440N/A
9/30/201945,9709,314N/A12,238N/A
6/30/201944,3679,362N/A10,805N/A
3/31/201943,0738,399N/A11,103N/A
12/31/201842,2946,220N/A10,922N/A
9/30/201841,7293,347N/A11,349N/A
6/30/201841,2591,341N/A7,385N/A
3/31/201840,7251,579N/A7,320N/A
12/31/201740,1222,394N/A6,451N/A
9/30/201739,8042,845N/A6,064N/A
6/30/201740,0165,086N/A10,206N/A
3/31/201739,9294,346N/A8,489N/A
12/31/201639,8073,920N/A10,376N/A
9/30/201639,9075,492N/A10,990N/A
6/30/201639,4445,133N/A11,330N/A
3/31/201639,3854,614N/A12,427N/A
12/31/201539,4984,442N/A12,538N/A
9/30/201539,76510,781N/A7,128N/A
6/30/201540,2499,850N/A8,165N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MRK's forecast earnings growth (18.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: MRK's earnings (18.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MRK's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MRK's revenue (3.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MRK's revenue (3.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MRK's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (35.5%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/05 21:33
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/05 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Merck & Co., Inc. is covered by 50 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ToungArgus Research Company
Emily FieldBarclays
Charles ButlerBarclays