Eli Lilly and Company

NYSE:LLY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$671.9b

Eli Lilly Valuation

Is LLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LLY ($727.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1332.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LLY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LLY?

Key metric: As LLY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LLY. This is calculated by dividing LLY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LLY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio78.2x
EarningsUS$8.37b
Market CapUS$671.90b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LLY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.8x
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
25.2x10.6%US$370.8b
MRK Merck
20.1x15.6%US$243.6b
PFE Pfizer
33x16.8%US$140.5b
ZTS Zoetis
32.8x9.9%US$79.0b
LLY Eli Lilly
78.2x29.5%US$671.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (78.2x) compared to the peer average (27.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LLY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OGN Organon
3x-7.1%US$3.87b
NDOI Endo
0.6xn/aUS$1.91b
PROC Procaps Group
1.5xn/aUS$77.85m
KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals
1.9x-40.0%US$9.77m
LLY 78.2xIndustry Avg. 19.1xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (78.2x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LLY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LLY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio78.2x
Fair PE Ratio54.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (78.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (54.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$746.20
US$992.18
+33.0%
14.6%US$1,250.00US$580.00n/a28
Nov ’25US$818.93
US$1,005.86
+22.8%
13.9%US$1,250.00US$580.00n/a27
Oct ’25US$884.48
US$995.42
+12.5%
13.9%US$1,150.00US$580.00n/a25
Sep ’25US$960.02
US$986.82
+2.8%
13.9%US$1,150.00US$580.00n/a25
Aug ’25US$832.44
US$918.99
+10.4%
16.3%US$1,117.00US$540.00n/a26
Jul ’25US$914.37
US$868.94
-5.0%
14.0%US$1,029.51US$540.00n/a25
Jun ’25US$820.34
US$852.52
+3.9%
12.7%US$1,023.00US$540.00n/a26
May ’25US$776.75
US$845.32
+8.8%
13.3%US$1,023.00US$540.00n/a26
Apr ’25US$760.55
US$797.44
+4.8%
14.1%US$1,000.00US$500.00n/a26
Mar ’25US$782.12
US$767.61
-1.9%
15.0%US$1,000.00US$500.00n/a27
Feb ’25US$660.43
US$636.99
-3.5%
13.9%US$763.00US$430.00n/a26
Jan ’25US$582.92
US$623.77
+7.0%
13.6%US$727.00US$430.00n/a27
Dec ’24US$584.04
US$619.14
+6.0%
14.2%US$722.00US$430.00n/a27
Nov ’24US$554.46
US$594.24
+7.2%
16.2%US$710.00US$340.00US$818.9326
Oct ’24US$537.13
US$568.74
+5.9%
14.0%US$640.00US$340.00US$884.4826
Sep ’24US$557.11
US$536.36
-3.7%
16.8%US$633.00US$300.00US$960.0227
Aug ’24US$453.09
US$475.01
+4.8%
14.2%US$565.00US$300.00US$832.4427
Jul ’24US$468.98
US$451.39
-3.8%
14.8%US$550.00US$300.00US$914.3723
Jun ’24US$436.49
US$436.70
+0.05%
14.7%US$507.00US$300.00US$820.3423
May ’24US$405.81
US$394.61
-2.8%
15.0%US$485.00US$270.00US$776.7523
Apr ’24US$343.42
US$375.83
+9.4%
13.3%US$444.00US$270.00US$760.5523
Mar ’24US$314.17
US$381.05
+21.3%
12.8%US$444.00US$270.00US$782.1222
Feb ’24US$342.57
US$377.82
+10.3%
15.6%US$440.00US$202.00US$660.4322
Jan ’24US$365.84
US$377.95
+3.3%
15.6%US$440.00US$202.00US$582.9222
Dec ’23US$370.33
US$371.23
+0.2%
15.5%US$436.00US$202.00US$584.0422
Nov ’23US$352.58
US$344.14
-2.4%
16.3%US$432.00US$202.00US$554.4621

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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