We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Eli Lilly Valuation

Is LLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LLY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

LLY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA34.1x
PEG Ratio2.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LLY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19x
MRK Merck
18x11.0%US$261.0b
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
24x4.7%US$430.4b
PFE Pfizer
7.9x-16.1%US$247.3b
BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb
26.1x19.7%US$165.3b
LLY Eli Lilly
51.6x21.0%US$322.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.6x) compared to the peer average (19x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LLY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.2%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.6x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (18.2x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LLY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LLY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio51.6x
Fair PE Ratio32.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.8x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LLY ($339.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($382.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LLY is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$339.08
US$379.05
+11.8%
15.5%US$455.00US$202.00n/a22
Jan ’24US$365.84
US$377.95
+3.3%
15.6%US$440.00US$202.00n/a22
Dec ’23US$370.33
US$371.23
+0.2%
15.5%US$436.00US$202.00n/a22
Nov ’23US$352.58
US$344.14
-2.4%
16.3%US$432.00US$202.00n/a21
Oct ’23US$323.35
US$337.76
+4.5%
14.9%US$412.00US$202.00n/a21
Sep ’23US$309.13
US$333.19
+7.8%
13.8%US$395.00US$202.00n/a21
Aug ’23US$324.15
US$326.90
+0.8%
14.5%US$395.00US$202.00n/a21
Jul ’23US$324.71
US$316.41
-2.6%
12.5%US$369.00US$202.00n/a22
Jun ’23US$311.08
US$315.09
+1.3%
12.4%US$369.00US$202.00n/a23
May ’23US$292.13
US$304.09
+4.1%
13.8%US$369.00US$202.00n/a22
Apr ’23US$292.67
US$283.73
-3.1%
11.7%US$335.00US$202.00n/a22
Mar ’23US$249.50
US$281.95
+13.0%
11.9%US$335.00US$202.00n/a21
Feb ’23US$248.28
US$285.18
+14.9%
11.5%US$335.00US$202.00US$342.5722
Jan ’23US$276.22
US$281.91
+2.1%
11.8%US$335.00US$202.00US$365.8422
Dec ’22US$249.13
US$273.42
+9.8%
10.7%US$315.00US$202.00US$370.3319
Nov ’22US$249.31
US$270.05
+8.3%
10.3%US$315.00US$202.00US$352.5819
Oct ’22US$229.59
US$267.89
+16.7%
11.0%US$315.00US$202.00US$323.3519
Sep ’22US$257.40
US$260.57
+1.2%
14.7%US$315.00US$190.00US$309.1321
Aug ’22US$243.50
US$241.90
-0.7%
12.4%US$300.00US$190.00US$324.1520
Jul ’22US$231.13
US$233.46
+1.0%
12.3%US$300.00US$190.00US$324.7119
Jun ’22US$198.42
US$216.34
+9.0%
10.0%US$254.00US$175.00US$311.0820
May ’22US$182.77
US$212.83
+16.4%
10.5%US$252.00US$170.00US$292.1319
Apr ’22US$185.24
US$215.49
+16.3%
10.8%US$256.00US$170.00US$292.6719
Mar ’22US$206.47
US$210.65
+2.0%
14.9%US$256.00US$120.00US$249.5019
Feb ’22US$203.14
US$206.07
+1.4%
15.5%US$256.00US$120.00US$248.2819

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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