Eli Lilly and Company

NYSE:LLY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$701.1b

Eli Lilly Valuation

Is LLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LLY ($764.71) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1318.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LLY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LLY?

Key metric: As LLY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LLY. This is calculated by dividing LLY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LLY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio82.3x
EarningsUS$8.37b
Market CapUS$701.09b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LLY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.4x
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
23.6x10.6%US$352.5b
MRK Merck
20.5x16.0%US$253.1b
PFE Pfizer
34.3x14.8%US$149.8b
ZTS Zoetis
31x10.0%US$77.1b
LLY Eli Lilly
82.3x29.8%US$701.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (82.3x) compared to the peer average (27.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LLY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OGN Organon
2.9x-8.3%US$3.80b
NDOI Endo
0.5xn/aUS$1.83b
KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals
1.8x-40.4%US$10.47m
EDXC Endexx
0.8xn/aUS$4.88m
LLY 82.3xIndustry Avg. 17.3xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (82.3x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LLY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LLY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio82.3x
Fair PE Ratio54.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (82.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (54.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$764.71
US$984.05
+28.7%
15.1%US$1,250.00US$580.00n/a27
Dec ’25US$795.35
US$992.82
+24.8%
14.9%US$1,250.00US$580.00n/a27
Nov ’25US$818.93
US$1,005.86
+22.8%
13.9%US$1,250.00US$580.00n/a27
Oct ’25US$884.48
US$995.42
+12.5%
13.9%US$1,150.00US$580.00n/a25
Sep ’25US$960.02
US$986.82
+2.8%
13.9%US$1,150.00US$580.00n/a25
Aug ’25US$832.44
US$918.99
+10.4%
16.3%US$1,117.00US$540.00n/a26
Jul ’25US$914.37
US$868.94
-5.0%
14.0%US$1,029.51US$540.00n/a25
Jun ’25US$820.34
US$852.52
+3.9%
12.7%US$1,023.00US$540.00n/a26
May ’25US$776.75
US$845.32
+8.8%
13.3%US$1,023.00US$540.00n/a26
Apr ’25US$760.55
US$797.44
+4.8%
14.1%US$1,000.00US$500.00n/a26
Mar ’25US$782.12
US$767.61
-1.9%
15.0%US$1,000.00US$500.00n/a27
Feb ’25US$660.43
US$636.99
-3.5%
13.9%US$763.00US$430.00n/a26
Jan ’25US$582.92
US$623.77
+7.0%
13.6%US$727.00US$430.00n/a27
Dec ’24US$584.04
US$619.14
+6.0%
14.2%US$722.00US$430.00US$795.3527
Nov ’24US$554.46
US$594.24
+7.2%
16.2%US$710.00US$340.00US$818.9326
Oct ’24US$537.13
US$568.74
+5.9%
14.0%US$640.00US$340.00US$884.4826
Sep ’24US$557.11
US$536.36
-3.7%
16.8%US$633.00US$300.00US$960.0227
Aug ’24US$453.09
US$475.01
+4.8%
14.2%US$565.00US$300.00US$832.4427
Jul ’24US$468.98
US$451.39
-3.8%
14.8%US$550.00US$300.00US$914.3723
Jun ’24US$436.49
US$436.70
+0.05%
14.7%US$507.00US$300.00US$820.3423
May ’24US$405.81
US$394.61
-2.8%
15.0%US$485.00US$270.00US$776.7523
Apr ’24US$343.42
US$375.83
+9.4%
13.3%US$444.00US$270.00US$760.5523
Mar ’24US$314.17
US$381.05
+21.3%
12.8%US$444.00US$270.00US$782.1222
Feb ’24US$342.57
US$377.82
+10.3%
15.6%US$440.00US$202.00US$660.4322
Jan ’24US$365.84
US$377.95
+3.3%
15.6%US$440.00US$202.00US$582.9222
Dec ’23US$370.33
US$371.23
+0.2%
15.5%US$436.00US$202.00US$584.0422

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 22:31
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Eli Lilly and Company is covered by 63 analysts. 29 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ToungArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Alistair CampbellBerenberg