Assessing Eli Lilly’s Valuation as New Diabetes and Cancer Drug Data Strengthen Growth Prospects

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) just released pivotal Phase 3 results for its oral diabetes and obesity candidate orforglipron, showing significant benefits over existing therapies. In addition, MonarchE trial data highlighted Verzenio’s long-term survival advantage in high-risk early breast cancer.

See our latest analysis for Eli Lilly.

Eli Lilly’s year has been marked by a flurry of breakthroughs, from regulatory wins and high-profile hires to substantial global manufacturing investments. The stock’s share price momentum has cooled recently, with a 1-year total shareholder return of -11.9%. However, its impressive 3-year total shareholder return of 141.6% highlights how much long-term holders have benefited from the company’s relentless innovation and dominant position in diabetes and oncology. Even with current volatility, optimism around its pipeline and market leadership is hard to miss.

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After an extraordinary run fueled by breakthrough launches and clinical wins, Eli Lilly’s shares are now near all-time highs. Does that mean investors have missed their window? Or is there still a buying opportunity given future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 10% Undervalued

Eli Lilly’s most tracked narrative sees a fair value above the current $802.83 share price, fueled by aggressive future growth expectations. The setup: can record-setting momentum in innovative drugs and international expansion continue to outpace today’s high valuation?

Advancements in research and development, particularly in neurodegenerative diseases (e.g., Alzheimer's with Kisunla and donanemab), and a deep clinical pipeline with multiple late-stage readouts, position Eli Lilly to capture future multi-billion dollar market opportunities and support long-term revenue and margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the bold projections behind this bullish fair value? Analysts are betting on breakthrough pipelines, international launches, and a major shift in future profitability. Which financial levers are fueling this narrative’s optimism? The real kicker is in how much profit growth is expected by 2028. Ready to see what makes their price target tick?

Result: Fair Value of $891.62 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent risks such as regulatory price pressures and patent expirations on key drugs could challenge Eli Lilly’s ambitious growth story in the future.

Find out about the key risks to this Eli Lilly narrative.

Build Your Own Eli Lilly Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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